Retired General: The West can win in Ukraine if it steps up against Russia, despite the challenges of war.
The conflict in Ukraine is far from a stalemate. There is still a chance for Ukraine to reclaim crucial territory, but a Russian victory is also possible if support from the West wavers.
Despite some claims that Russia has already lost, the outcome of the war largely depends on the support of Western nations.
If Russia succeeds in taking over all of Ukraine, it would have dire consequences for the US including giving Vladimir Putin significant resources, moving Russian forces closer to the NATO border, and enabling a speedy rebuild of the Russian military.
The US and NATO would then need to quickly respond to this new threat, which would be much more costly than aiding Ukraine now. This could potentially lead to American casualties if deterrence fails.
The situation in Ukraine remains critical and unpredictable. The delay in US military assistance allowed Russia to launch devastating air attacks and make steady ground advances along the front line.
Although Russian losses have been high, their gains have been incremental and they continue to commit reserves to maintain pressure. The conflict is expected to remain serious for the foreseeable future.
While Ukrainian losses are also significant, their forces are stretched thin, and the US aid, though delayed, is not coming in a sufficient amount to bring about a sudden change.
Strategic Approach
Russia is pushing forward in various regions, with Ukrainian forces managing to halt some advances but at the cost of spreading their limited reserves thin. Ukrainian forces are facing pressure throughout the front line.
Although Russian assaults continue, their gains are slow, costly, and mainly serve to keep Ukrainian forces pinned. Russian advancements in technology, such as electronic warfare, have hindered Ukrainian drone operations and strengthened their air campaign effectiveness.
While Russian tactics may have flaws, their overall capabilities should not be underestimated. They continue to adapt and learn, posing a sustained threat to Ukraine and potentially NATO in the future.
However, Ukrainian forces are also adapting and innovating, displaying confidence in their ability to ultimately succeed. Their technological advancements, particularly in drone usage, have proven effective against Russian tanks.
Strategic Planning
Ukrainian forces, supported by Western systems, are poised to halt Russian advances and potentially push them back in 2025. The arrival of F-16s will provide advantages in air defense and ground operations against Russian forces.
Ukraine’s plans for smaller counteroffensives, integrating ground-based fires and operations closely, are seen as a more effective approach compared to large, ambitious offensives seen in the past.
Ukraine’s success in utilizing drones and missiles to neutralize the Russian Black Sea Fleet showcases the power of innovation and tactical advantages. This achievement has enabled Ukraine to reopen the vital grain corridor.
Challenges and Opportunities
Although Ukraine faces significant challenges, including a smaller population and economy compared to Russia, their innovation and courage have been key strengths in the conflict.
Ukraine needs continued support from the US and Western allies to strengthen their military capabilities and counter Russian aggression effectively. The removal of restrictions on American-provided systems could significantly impact the outcome of the conflict.
Global Leadership
The US must continue to lead its allies and partners in supporting Ukraine to defeat Russian aggression in the long term. A Russian victory would have far-reaching implications, not only in Europe but globally.
If the US withdraws or weakens its support, it could embolden other authoritarian regimes around the world. American leadership is essential in shaping a future of peace and prosperity.
Ultimately, the decisions made in Ukraine today will have a significant impact on the course of history. Getting it right could lead to a more peaceful world, while getting it wrong may result in severe consequences.
This article was contributed by Jack Keane, a retired four-star general, along with Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Karolina Hird, and Kateryna Stepanenko.
