The Potential Power of ‘Double Haters’ in Returning Trump to the White House

Pundits and analysts are analyzing head-to-head polling numbers to interpret the direction of the presidential race.

However, to predict where the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will end up, rather than its current status, it’s crucial to look at the candidates’ favorability numbers instead.

Historically, a presidential candidate’s favorability rating is strongly linked to their final share of the vote. In 2016 and 2020, almost all individuals who expressed a favorable opinion of a candidate voted for that candidate.

In 2016, this fact was overlooked due to the high percentage of voters who disliked both candidates.

Trump won the Electoral College by securing the 18% of voters who were “double haters” — those who indicated their dislike for both him and Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton — with a substantial 17-point margin, 47% to 30%.

In contrast, Trump lost in 2020 because nearly all voters had positive feelings towards one of the two nominees — with 52% favoring Biden and only 46% favoring Trump. Each candidate only lost 4% of their supporters to the other.

However, if we examine the statistics, Trump lost the popular vote in 2020 by a mere 4.5%, slightly less than the 6% indicated by the divergence in their favorability scores.

This suggests that he once again won over the “double haters” — but their numbers on Election Day were too insignificant to impact the outcome.

The 2024 election is shaping up to be somewhere in between those two scenarios.

As of October 16, Trump’s favorability rating among likely voters in polls listed on the Real Clear Politics average since October 1 stood at 45%. In comparison, Harris had a higher favorability rating of 49.3%.

Although this might suggest a 4-point lead for Harris, the head-to-head polling numbers in those same polls showed Harris leading by only 2.4 percentage points.

The only way to reconcile these figures is that Harris seems to be losing the approximately 6% of voters who are “double haters” — and by a significant margin.

Strategically, this implies that Trump should aim to amplify anti-Harris sentiment as much as possible. The higher dissatisfaction with Harris, the more likely people are to — even reluctantly — vote for Trump.

The polls from October also suggest that Trump needs to increase voter turnout to change the electoral landscape.

Three polls this month involving registered voters or all adults showed Harris with only a 1.7-point favorability advantage over Trump — and with a mere 1.66-point lead in the race.

In essence, Trump is performing better than Harris among individuals who do not typically vote.

Voter turnout is linked to educational attainment, meaning Trump’s chances of success improve with a larger electorate that is less skewed towards college graduates.

If Trump’s less-educated, low-voting-propensity supporters abstain from voting, either on Election Day or during early voting, Harris’ chances of winning significantly increase.

This has led many within the GOP to worry about the effectiveness of Trump’s ground game.

Instead of hiring a large number of party staffers for field offices and phone-banking in key states, the Trump campaign seems to have outsourced these efforts to external groups like Turning Point Action and Elon Musk’s America PAC.

Furthermore, these two factors — presidential candidate favorability and voter turnout — will also have a significant impact on downballot candidates.

Senate and House races have become more nationalized, with more individuals voting along party lines and fewer candidates able to attract voters from the opposite party supporting the presidential nominee.

If Harris can maintain her favorability numbers, Democrats have a higher chance of winning the House and limiting losses in the Senate.

If Trump can decrease Harris’ favorability and mobilize his less-engaged voters, he could potentially bolster Republican numbers in the Senate and House significantly.

We won’t know the outcome of Trump’s turnout strategy until after Election Day. However, early voting data in the coming days will provide some insight.

If early votes from registered Republicans (or, in non-partisan registration states, from predominantly GOP areas) include a significant number of ballots from first-time or infrequent voters, it indicates that Trump is successful in getting his non-traditional voters to the polls.

Conversely, if early Republican votes primarily come from habitual voters, models predicting a Harris advantage in turnout are more likely to be accurate.

All signs point to 2024 being one of the closest elections in history — once again.

Pay close attention to the favorability numbers: If Trump’s campaign to increase negativity towards Harris succeeds and her favorability drops, the “double haters” could play a crucial role in sending him back to the White House.

Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.