The recent aid for Ukraine is just the beginning

Last Saturday night, I witnessed the House of Representatives concluding its vote on a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine, which left me feeling elated. It took historic courage and leadership from House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring the bill up for a vote, considering the opposition from the majority of House Republicans who are against aid and could potentially cost Johnson his job.

Despite the significant aid package, the reaction here in Ukraine has been surprisingly subdued. The imminent arrival of crucial weaponry will play a vital role on the battlefield and in cities across the country, especially amidst the intensified Russian air attacks in recent weeks.

The aid is expected to stabilize the front in eastern and southern Ukraine, where Russia is currently positioned to advance, and aid Ukrainians in enhancing their defenses in preparation for the expected Russian offensive in the upcoming months as spring approaches.

However, this aid package is unlikely to enable Kyiv to go on the offensive and shift the tide of the war in favor of Ukraine.

Since the Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has been receiving enough weaponry from the US and other allies to prevent Russia from winning but not sufficient to secure a victory for Kyiv.

While this approach worked for a period, Ukraine cannot rely on it as a long-term strategy to win the war against a much more powerful opponent like Russia.

One of the key challenges Ukraine faces is the vast difference in population size between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia having a significant numerical advantage. Additionally, Russia’s economy has been transitioned to a war-time footing, while Ukraine is still recovering from the economic impact of the war and facing attacks on its weapons factories.

Ukraine needs not only comparable weapons but overwhelming superiority in terms of quantity and quality to stand a chance against Russia.

The latest aid package from the House includes critical weaponry like long-range ATACMS missiles, although more is needed to address Ukraine’s requirements.

The upcoming aid will include artillery shells, ammunition, armored vehicles, and other essential weaponry. While this aid will be beneficial, it may not be a game-changer for Ukraine.

Neighboring Poland, a NATO member, is acquiring a significant amount of US weapons to address the threat from Russia, creating envy among Ukrainians who require more support.

What Ukraine needs from Washington, beyond weapons, is a renewed commitment and a clear strategy for victory in the long term.

Deciding on a vision beyond stabilizing the front and developing a strategy for the future are essential for the US and its allies to support Ukraine effectively.

While there are concerns about the consequences of a potential Russian defeat, a decision must be made on whether Ukraine or Russia prevails in this conflict. Until then, we are merely delaying the inevitable, and Ukrainians are paying the price with their lives.

Tamar Jacoby is the director of the New Ukraine Project at the Progressive Policy Institute.