Trump is poised to receive many votes in Georgia without resorting to controversial phone calls to election officials

Donald Trump has been keeping a close eye on Georgia since his narrow loss in the state in 2020. This time, polls indicate that he may not need to make post-election phone calls to state election officials for additional votes — he is garnering the support needed to win on his own.

According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump has been consistently ahead of the incumbent president in Georgia. Joe Biden has not led in any polls since November, and if he had stayed in the race, the outcome seemed almost certain.

With Vice President Kamala Harris entering the competition, Trump’s lead in the polls has narrowed slightly. In the recent polls, he is ahead by 2.5 points, and this lead decreases to 1.5 points when third-party candidates are not considered. This indicates that he could win in a head-to-head contest, possibly securing Georgia’s crucial 16 Electoral College votes.

Despite Democratic successes in Georgia, including three consecutive US Senate wins, their path to victory in the state remains narrow. Democratic candidates have struggled to secure a majority in the Peach State, and even strong campaigns have not surpassed Biden’s 2020 performance of 49.5%.

The influence of Georgia’s large rural white population remains significant, with Republicans typically receiving substantial support in these areas. Democrats tend to perform better in regional cities like Savannah, Augusta, and Athens, as well as in rural counties with a significant black voter population.

The key battleground in Georgia is the Atlanta metro area and its suburbs. To win, Democrats need a strong showing among black voters, particularly in counties like Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Clayton, and DeKalb. However, capturing these votes alone may not be sufficient for victory, as seen in Stacey Abrams’ 2022 gubernatorial campaign.

Ultimately, the Democratic path to victory in Georgia relies on securing close to 90% of the black vote, high turnout among these voters, and appealing to college-educated whites and nonblack voters of color. Missing the mark on any of these factors could result in a victory for Trump.

While Trump holds a narrow edge in Georgia, it is not a guaranteed win for him. The state’s strong GOP lean and the Biden-Harris administration’s unpopularity could impact the final outcome of the campaign.

Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.