Vladimir Putin’s Shaky Empire: How the US Can Mitigate His Threats
This week marked a quarter-century of Vladimir Putin’s leadership, a milestone the Russian leader acknowledged in a televised speech.
Celebrating his past accomplishments, he told the Russian people, “We can take just pride in what we have already achieved,” asserting confidently, “We are confident that everything will turn out fine.”
However, the reality presents a bleaker picture: Putin is currently more vulnerable than ever in his reign.
In the year ahead, the forthcoming Trump administration should take full advantage of this precarious situation.
Putin’s governance is fundamentally built on a precarious agreement with the Russian populace.
In return for their freedoms, he promised to restore order and stability that had been lost in the chaos following the Soviet Union’s disintegration.
Today’s Russia is a stark contrast to the stable and flourishing nation he once vowed to build. Instead, it is now an isolated state entrenched in conflict and suffering from systemic decline.
Experts in demographics warn that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated its long-term population decrease.
Economists point out that the nation’s reliance on oil — a classic case of the “resource curse” — and its wartime economy have confined it to a path of enduring stagnation.
These deep-rooted challenges show no indication of improvement in the coming year.
Furthermore, the Russian National Wealth Fund is precariously nearing bankruptcy.
Putin has squandered his nation’s assets on an imperial image of advanced capability and wealth, investing in hypersonic missiles, nuclear-armed submarines, and a $2 billion skyscraper in St. Petersburg for Gazprom, the Kremlin’s gas monopoly.
Meanwhile, the average monthly salary in Russia is only $787, with citizens allocating a staggering 30% of their earnings to food (in contrast, Americans spend approximately 11%).
Russia’s international partnerships are equally dismal.
Instead of cultivating alliances with strong partners, Russia has formed a coalition of weak dependencies, including Belarus, various African kleptocracies, and unreliable “frenemies” like Iran. These relationships are at best tenuous.
The recent downfall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad significantly weakened the influence and power projection capabilities of both Russia and Iran.
Assad now joins an expanding list of ousted leaders from Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, and Armenia — all of whom sought sanctuary in Russia after Moscow’s support failed to uphold their regimes.
This brings us to China.
Instead of nurturing a relationship based on parity with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Putin has become reliant on Chinese financial aid and industrial resources to fuel his military ambitions and imperial pursuits.
Initially, Moscow hailed Beijing’s commitment to a “no limits” partnership in 2022. However, as Putin’s war in Ukraine reached a stalemate, China began distancing itself from this pledge.
In 2023, China’s former ambassador to the European Union dismissed the “no limits” assertion as merely “rhetoric.” Even more humiliating for Putin, Beijing excluded the phrase from a statement regarding Sino-Russian relations during his most recent visit to China.
These circumstances create a unique opportunity for the upcoming Trump administration.
In the coming year, the Trump administration must prevent Putin from being able to spread unrest across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
The quickest route to achieving this is to tighten the Western sanctions initially, with a view to easing them later.
Washington should primarily target Putin’s energy revenue — the backbone of his imperial aspirations.
To accomplish this, the U.S. and its G7 allies must significantly reduce the “oil price cap” on Russian crude oil exports.
Originally introduced by the EU to diminish Moscow’s earnings, the cap evolved into a substantial loophole in Russian sanctions — and the Biden administration agreed to this initiative.
Allowing Russia to sell oil at prices below $65 per barrel currently enables the Kremlin to accumulate significant revenue without facing meaningful repercussions.
This revenue fuels Russia’s ability to sow chaos across the globe.
The Trump administration should severely restrict this exemption — potentially lowering the sanctions threshold to as low as $35 per barrel.
Since Putin cannot endure without this financial stream, such a strategy would substantially bolster Trump 2.0’s negotiation strength against Moscow.
Ultimately, the Kremlin will seek relief from Western sanctions to stabilize its faltering economy, likely accompanied by empty promises of improved behavior.
Washington must maintain vigilance, ensuring that no concessions are made without concrete evidence of action from Russia.
Ultimately, the United States cannot be tasked with rescuing Russia from Putin’s legacy of squandered national potential and self-created decline.
What can be done, however, is to maintain a steadfast position against Putin while supporting our allies in resisting him in the upcoming year.
Peter Doran is an adjunct senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
