Recently Discovered Asteroid Has a Small Likelihood of Colliding with Earth in 2032

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla.—Officials from space agencies reported on Wednesday that a recently identified asteroid has a minimal chance of colliding with Earth in 2032.

The probability of a potential impact is slightly over 1 percent.

“We are not concerned at all due to the 99 percent possibility that it will miss,” stated Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies. “However, it is still worthy of attention.”

Initially detected last month by a telescope in Chile, the near-Earth asteroid—named 2024 YR4—is estimated to measure between 130 and 330 feet in diameter.

Researchers are closely monitoring the asteroid, which is currently moving away from Earth. As its orbital path around the sun becomes clearer, Chodas and others believe that the risk to Earth could eventually reduce to zero.

NASA and the European Space Agency indicated that the asteroid will gradually disappear from view in the coming months. Meanwhile, some of the world’s most advanced telescopes will continue tracking it to refine their understanding of its size and trajectory. Once it is out of sight, it won’t reappear until it passes by again in 2028.

The asteroid came closest to Earth on Christmas Day, passing within approximately 500,000 miles of our planet—about double the distance to the moon. It was identified just two days later.

Chodas mentioned that scientists are reviewing sky survey data from 2016, where initial predictions indicate the asteroid approached Earth closely then as well.

If researchers can spot the asteroid in those earlier images, they should be able to ascertain whether it will collide with or bypass the planet. He informed The Associated Press, “If we cannot identify it, the probability of impact will adjust gradually as we gather more observations.”

According to the ESA, Earth is struck by an asteroid of this size every few thousand years, potentially causing significant damage. This is why this asteroid is currently the top concern on ESA’s risk list.

The possible impact date is set for December 22, 2032. It is far too early to predict where it might land if it were to collide with Earth.

The encouraging news, based on NASA’s assessments, is that presently no other known large asteroids have an impact probability exceeding 1 percent.

By Marcia Dunn