LONDON—The macro-economic picture is deteriorating fast and could push the U.S. economy into recession as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy to tame surging inflation, BofA strategists warned in a weekly research note.
“‘Inflation shock’ worsening, ‘rates shock’ just beginning, ‘recession shock’ coming”, BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note to clients, adding that in this context, cash, volatility, commodities, and cryptocurrencies could outperform bonds and stocks.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled it will likely start culling assets from its $9 trillion balance sheet at its meeting in early May and will do so at nearly twice the pace it did in its previous “quantitative tightening” exercise as it confronts inflation running at a four-decade high.
A large majority of investors also expect the central bank to hike its key interest rate by 50 basis point.
In terms of notable weekly flows, BofA said emerging market equity funds enjoyed the biggest inflow in ten weeks at $5.3 billion in the week to Wednesday while emerging market debt vehicles attracted $2.2 billion, their best week since September.
It was also an eight week of outflows for European equities at $1.6 billion while U.S. stocks enjoyed their second week of inflows, adding $1.5 billion in the week to Wednesday.
The analysis was based on EPFR data.