The Gallup survey reveals that shoppers, on average, expect to spend $1,012 on Christmas or holiday gifts in the 2024 season.
American shoppers, as per Gallup’s poll, are projected to spend a record-breaking amount on Christmas gifts this holiday season. This increase aligns with a boost in consumer confidence post-election and a decrease in concerns about a potential recession in the coming year.
According to the
survey issued by Gallup on November 27, U.S. consumers plan, on average, to spend $1,012 on Christmas or holiday gifts this year. This amount marks the highest figure on record, surpassing last year’s record of $975.
Even when adjusting for the impact of rising prices due to inflation, this year’s planned spending remains at a record high. Inflation has reduced the purchasing power of the dollar over the past year, with $1 in October 2024 having the same value as 97 cents a year earlier,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite this adjustment, the planned spending of $1,012 is still higher than last Christmas season’s intended spending amount, indicating positive trends for retailers.
Gallup’s analysis indicates that this year’s holiday retail sales are likely to increase by almost 5 percent compared to the previous year, outperforming the 4 percent average annual growth in retail sales since 2000.
Moreover, a record-matching 19 percent of U.S. shoppers stated to Gallup that they intend to spend more on Christmas gifts this year than they did last year, a figure that matches the record set in 1999, then again in 2023, and now in 2024.
The record-high holiday spending intentions signify that U.S. consumers are set to continue shopping, providing a crucial boost to the economy.
Consumer spending, which contributes to around two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), saw a solid 0.4 percent month-over-month growth in October, according to
data released on November 27 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Additionally, GDP rose by 2.8 percent in the third quarter, as per a separate BEA
report, highlighting increased consumer spending as a primary driver of economic growth during the quarter.
Retail sales also experienced a 0.4 percent rise in October compared to the previous month, based on recent
data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Furthermore, the National Retail Federation projected that the 2024 holiday season will set new records in terms of total dollars spent, even after adjusting for the impact of inflation on purchasing power.
Gallup’s spending intentions survey, along with the BEA’s spending figures, complement recent reports indicating a surge in consumer confidence post-election.
The latest consumer sentiment
index by the University of Michigan saw a 1.8 percentage point increase in November, marking a 17.1 percent rise from a year ago. Similarly, the forward-looking consumer expectations gauge jumped by 3.8 percent from October, a 35.4 percent increase from the previous year. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence
index also rose by 2.1 percentage points in November, largely driven by improved job availability, reduced inflation expectations, and diminished fears of a recession.
“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months declined in November, reaching the lowest level since we first asked the question in July 2022,” stated Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
Aligned with the decrease in recession concerns among consumers, a group of professional economic forecasters
polled by the National Association for Business Economics raised their economic growth forecasts significantly for 2025, with fewer seeing downside risks as predominant.
Despite the uptick in optimism, consumers surveyed by The Conference Board shared mixed plans for future purchases. While intentions to buy homes paused in November, there was a slight increase in plans to purchase automobiles. The outlook for durable goods purchases was uncertain, with declines in plans for appliances and electronics balanced by sustained interest in healthcare and travel spending.
