Challenges at Rafah border intensify Biden’s geopolitical balance | US News
Setting red lines is important, but enforcing them when they are crossed is crucial. President Joe Biden understands this well.
However, he also knows that following through on the new red line of withholding offensive weapons for Israel could have serious domestic consequences.
Navigating the delicate balance between geopolitics and domestic politics is a challenging task for the American president.
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Let’s break this down into two parts. First, the politics. Then, the challenges of red lines.
Western leaders often declare red lines in interviews, like Mr. Biden’s recent statement on CNN, presenting them as firm warnings. However, these red lines can sometimes prove to be ineffective tools of diplomacy.
For example, when Barack Obama set a red line on chemical weapons with Syria’s Bashar al Assad in 2012, it was crossed without consequence. Similarly, Vladimir Putin ignored a red line set by Mr. Biden on Ukraine in 2021 and proceeded with an invasion.
While each red line is unique, the underlying principle remains the same – crossing a red line sends a clear message.
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Joe Biden with Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow in 2011. Pic: AP
Biden’s frustration with Netanyahu
Over the last six months, as Israel has been engaging with Hamas in Gaza, President Biden initially believed red lines were unnecessary due to Israel’s close alliance with the US.
However, as differences with the Netanyahu government grew over civilian protection and future plans for Gaza, a red line focusing on Rafah emerged.
Rafah has become Biden’s red line in relation to Israel.
The President has consistently opposed Netanyahu’s push for a ground invasion of Rafah, which is where a large population resides.
Smoke rises from Rafah after an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza city this week. Pic: AP
The Israeli military has not yet entered Rafah city but is focusing its operations to the east and around the crossing to Egypt.
This allows the Biden administration to claim that their red line has not been crossed. Spokesperson John Kirby stated, “They didn’t describe it as a major ground operation,” this week.
Red lines can be either broken through abruptly or gradually eroded. To counter Netanyahu’s gradual undermining, Biden has reinforced his red line.
“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities, that deal with that problem,” he told CNN.
A significant admission
His acknowledgment that American weapons have resulted in civilian casualties is noteworthy.
However, there is nuance in his red line. He specifically refers to halting offensive weapons used in operations that have caused destruction in Gaza and potentially in Rafah.
He is not threatening to cease all US weapons supplies to Israel, particularly defensive weapons for countering Iranian proxy rockets and other necessary equipment.
Nonetheless, this represents a significant shift for Biden, unprecedented and potentially damaging for Israel during its prolonged conflict.
The domestic political challenges
This leads us to the domestic political aspect of this situation.
For every action Biden takes regarding Israel, there is a political calculation to consider, given the diverse opinions within his own party and from Republicans.
While Republicans often demand unwavering support for Israel, a significant portion of Democrat voters are concerned about limiting weapons supplies to Israel.
Biden is aware of the pro-Palestine sentiment among certain critical voters in key states, further complicating the political landscape with the upcoming election in six months.
