Elections, Debt, and Taxes: Anticipations for the 119th Congress
In the initial weeks, legislators will need to elect a speaker and certify the 2024 election. The GOP is also pushing for legislation regarding taxes, border security, and national debt.
WASHINGTON—The 119th Congress of the United States is set to commence on January 3, 2025, and will continue for a two-year term until January 3, 2027. Republicans will possess a narrow majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
With a Republican administration at the helm of the Executive Branch, it is anticipated that Congress will strive to implement conservative policies into law.
However, these initiatives will face challenges. The Senate’s cloture vote requirement means that the backing of 60 senators is needed to surpass a filibuster, alongside existing divisions within the House Republican Conference, which holds a slim majority.
Important reforms are expected to be pursued through the “budget reconciliation” process. This allows a limited number of bills concerning spending, taxes, and debt to bypass the 60-vote cloture requirement in the Senate, although such measures must have effects limited to 10 years.
The early months of 2025 will see Congress engaged in several significant legislative actions, outlined below.
Election of a Speaker of the House
The U.S. Constitution mandates that the House of Representatives elect a speaker to lead the chamber. Typically, no legislative activities occur until the Speaker is elected. The House rules grant the speaker substantial authority.
The speaker, commonly the leader of the majority party, stands as the highest-ranking member of Congress and is second only to the Vice President in the presidential line of succession.
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The election of a speaker requires a majority vote from the House, allowing the majority party, if aligned, to choose a candidate. This has historically been the norm, where the winner of the internal conference or caucus elections was supported unanimously by their party on the floor.
In the previous 118th Congress, deep rifts within the Republican Conference delayed the selection of a speaker, with House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy ultimately securing the position after 15 rounds of voting, marking the longest election of its kind since 1859. McCarthy was later removed from his position in October 2023, reflecting ongoing divisions within the Conference.
“I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues, because we observed numerous failures last year that raise concerns,” stated Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) to The Epoch Times.
Roy, policy chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, has often disagreed with his party on fiscal policy matters that could impact the deficit, including the annual passage of omnibus government funding legislation.
Thus, unless substantial concessions are made, it remains uncertain whether Johnson can secure the speakership in the initial ballot, which would renew controversy right from the onset of Congress.
Certification of the 2024 Presidential Election
On January 6, 2025, Congress will assemble in a joint session to certify the outcomes of the 2024 presidential election through the counting and approval of each state’s Electoral College votes. This final procedural requirement is stipulated by the U.S. Constitution’s 12th Amendment.
The event will be presided over by Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost the election to Trump, marking her last major act in office.
Heightened security measures will be in place, reflecting the events of January 6, 2021, with the occasion designated as a National Special Security Event (NSSE)—the highest level of security comparable to presidential inaugurations and State of the Union Addresses when all federal leaders gather at one location.
Tax Cuts and Reforms
The foremost policy issue Republicans are looking to tackle is taxation. In 2017, the party enacted the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which lowered personal income tax brackets and corporate tax rates. This was Trump’s first significant legislative achievement during his first term.
Additionally, some members of the GOP wish to revive an agreement to expand the Child Tax Credit (CTC), which was negotiated in 2024 by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.).
Republicans have opposed provisions in the agreement that would allow illegal immigrant parents of natural-born U.S. citizen children to claim the credit. They also expressed concerns about a “lookback” provision permitting unemployed parents to claim a credit based on income from a previous year, which they argue could discourage them from seeking employment.
Immigration and Border Security
One of the primary focuses of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, aside from the economy, was border security. Under the Biden administration, over 7 million foreign nationals entered the U.S. illegally across the southern border with Mexico. In response, Trump vowed to initiate the “largest deportation operation in American history” and to reform asylum laws that currently allow illegal immigrants to remain in the country while their claims are being assessed.
Some border security measures, like mandating that asylum seekers remain in Mexico while their claims are evaluated, will not require new legislation. However, funding for mass deportations and revisions to the asylum process will necessitate Congressional approval of new spending and administrative laws.
Most significantly, Trump’s ongoing aspiration of constructing a wall along the southern border will require Congressional funding approval.
Spending-related bills could bypass the 60-vote cloture requirement in the Senate using the budget reconciliation process. However, revisions to immigration and asylum laws would likely be deemed inappropriate for such a bill by the Senate Parliamentarian, whose rulings have historically limited both parties.
The Debt Limit
The fiscal health of the U.S. Government relies on borrowing funds to cover expenditures and service existing debts. By law, the federal government’s debt is nominally capped at $14.29 trillion, but repeated extensions have caused the actual national debt to swell to approximately $36 trillion today. The most recent measure, which suspended the debt ceiling until January 1, 2025, was the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) of 2023.
Despite this suspension ending, the U.S. government will not immediately default on its debt and spending obligations on January 1. Provisions in existing law, as well as currency reserves, will allow the Treasury to meet its obligations for several months. Nonetheless, Congress must act within the early months of 2025 to avert a default, which could have dire ramifications for the global economy, considering the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency.
This endeavor fell short after many Republicans and Democrats voiced their opposition.
