Final Polls Reveal What to Expect in the 2024 Election Just 2 Days Away
So far, about 75 million people have voted early.
With just two days to go before the Nov. 5 General Election, multiple final polls show that the 2024 presidential race still appears to be close.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are crisscrossing the country to rally voters in the states that matter most. At the same time, each side is investing massive resources to drive up turnout for the final voting period.
What Final Polls Are Saying
Multiple final polls released by the New York Times-Siena College, Morning Consult, Rasmussen, ABC News, Atlas Intel, and NBC News show that Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck, although the picture becomes more murky when broken down by swing states.
That poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in Nevada, 2 points in North Carolina, 2 points in Wisconsin, and 1 point in Georgia. The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while the survey shows Trump ahead by 3 points in Arizona.
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Silver, at the same time, has accused some pollsters of putting their “finger on the scale” and lying to keep the presidential race close in polls, according to a podcast interview last week.
Early Voting Breakdown
As of Sunday morning, about 75 million people have voted early across dozens of states.
Of the two dozen states that report early voting by party affiliation, registered Democrats have a slim 1.7-percent lead over registered Republicans. Some 14.6 million Democrats have cast early ballots, Republicans have cast 13.9 million, and unaffiliated voters have cast just under 10 million, according to the election tracker.
Swing State Breakdown
While Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan don’t report by party affiliation, four other battleground states do.
In Nevada, Republicans have a 40,000-vote lead in the early-vote total, buoyed by a strong in-person vote showing, the data show.
Days after early voting opened in North Carolina, registered Republicans took a slight lead over Democrats and have maintained the advantage as of Sunday, according to the tracker. GOP voters currently have a 42,000-vote lead over Democrats in that state.
While only 1.7 million people have voted early in Pennsylvania, Democrats have a 400,000-ballot lead over Republicans, the tracker shows. Pennsylvania, which has about 9 million registered voters, only reports mail-in ballots.
Final Events
Trump began Saturday with an appearance in North Carolina; he stopped next in Virginia and returned to the Tar Heel state in the evening. There is perhaps no more important swing state than Pennsylvania, where Trump is campaigning Sunday. He also has appearances scheduled for North Carolina and Georgia.
Harris campaigned in Atlanta on Saturday before a rally in North Carolina’s capital, signs that her team is sensing opportunity in the South. She’s planning multiple stops in Michigan on Sunday, shifting to a Democratic-leaning state in the “blue wall” where her allies believe she is vulnerable.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
