Here’s What the Polls Say About Seven Crucial Battleground States That Could Decide the US Election | US News
The competition for the presidency of the US unfolds across 50 states (and the District of Columbia) but is primarily decided in a few crucial battlegrounds.
This year, the path to the White House goes through seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Given the significant impact of potentially just hundreds of thousands of voters in these states, let’s delve into the latest polls in each of them.
Follow the latest: Biden endorses Harris for White House
We will analyze each state based on the number of Electoral College votes it awards (a candidate needs a total of 270 to win the presidency), its voting pattern in 2020, and the current polling data.
Please note that a Democratic nominee to replace Joe Biden has not been selected yet, and the polls mentioned below were conducted before the president’s withdrawal from the race.
Arizona – 11 Electoral College votes – voted Democratic in 2020
Formerly a Republican stronghold, Arizona has seen a shift towards Democratic politicians in recent years due to changing demographics.
This shift was evident when Joe Biden won the state in 2020, becoming only the second Democratic presidential candidate in seven decades to achieve this.
However, recent polls indicate that Donald Trump might have a lead in this state.
One poll conducted on July 16-18 showed Mr. Trump (44%) leading over Mr. Biden (40%).
Another poll conducted on July 15-16 also had Mr. Trump (49%) ahead of Mr. Biden (44%) and leading Kamala Harris by 48% to 42%.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Could Kamala Harris be the next US president?
Read more:
Joe Biden pulls out of race
Analysis: Biden became a liability for Democrats
Joe Biden’s statement in full
Georgia – 16 Electoral College votes – voted Democrat in 2020
One of the most significant victories for Mr. Biden in 2020, the rapid growth in the Atlanta suburbs led to him becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to win there in nearly three decades.
Despite a slim margin of victory—less than 13,000 votes—the win was reinforced by Democrats securing both Senate seats in the state.
A poll conducted on July 16-18 showed Mr. Trump (45%) leading over Mr. Biden (40%) in Georgia.
Another poll conducted on July 15-16 had Mr. Trump (47%) in the lead over Mr. Biden (44%). An imaginary match-up between Mr. Trump (47%) and Mrs. Harris (37%) also indicated an advantage for the Republican candidate.
Gretchen Whitmer is a popular figure in the Democratic Party. Pic: Reuters
Michigan – 15 Electoral College votes – voted Democrat in 2020
Part of the crucial ‘rust belt’ states, Michigan is the home state of prominent Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Although won by Mr. Trump in 2016, marking the first Republican victory in many years, Michigan was carried by Mr. Biden in 2020.
A poll conducted on July 17-18 had Mr. Trump (49%) leading over Mr. Biden (46%). He also held the lead in a hypothetical match-up against Mrs. Harris (46% to 41%).
However, in a hypothetical confrontation with Mrs. Whitmer, Mr. Trump (45%) trailed the state governor (46%) by a point.
Nevada – six Electoral College votes – voted Democrat in 2020
Most of Nevada is rural, with the majority of the population clustered in just two counties.
A poll conducted on July 16-18 showed Mr. Trump (44%) in the lead over Mr. Biden (41%).
Another poll placed him several points above Mrs. Harris (50% to 40%).
Read more:
Biden has pulled out – what happens now?
The final days of Biden’s presidential campaign
North Carolina – 16 Electoral College votes – voted Republican in 2020
In 2020, North Carolina narrowly favored Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden in the presidential race, with the margin of victory being less than 100,000 votes in a state with a population exceeding 10 million.
It was one of the surprising outcomes of the 2020 election, as Mr. Biden was previously expected to win the Tar Heel state.
A poll conducted on July 16-18 showed Mr. Trump (45%) ahead of Mr. Biden (39%) in the rematch.
Another poll conducted on July 15-16 had Mr. Trump (47%) leading over Mr. Biden (38%).
Josh Shapiro with President Biden. Pic: AP
Pennsylvania – 19 Electoral College votes – voted Democrat in 2020
Pennsylvania, Mr. Biden’s home state, is a key battleground in the 2024 election, given its significant allocation of Electoral College votes.
This populous state, part of the Rust Belt, houses major cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
It’s also the residence of rising Democratic figure Josh Shapiro, the state governor and a prominent party member.
A poll conducted on July 16-18 had Mr. Trump (45%) leading over Mr. Biden (41%). Another poll, conducted on July 17-18, showed Mr. Trump ahead of Mr. Biden by 46% to 42%.
Meanwhile, latest polls from July 17-18 indicated Mr. Shapiro (47%) leading Mr. Trump (43%), whereas the Republican was ahead of Mrs. Harris by 45% to 43%.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Wisconsin – 10 Electoral College votes – voted Democrat in 2020
The previous election in Wisconsin was close, with Mr. Biden winning by approximately 20,000 votes. The upcoming election could be equally tight.
Wisconsin also holds the record of predicting the national winner accurately since 2008.
A poll conducted on July 16-18 revealed Mr. Biden (42%) and Mr. Trump (42%) tied in the battleground state, while another poll conducted on July 15-17 showed Mr. Trump (46%) in the lead over Mr. Biden (43%).
