“Hotter, Drier, Faster, Stronger: The Impact of Climate Change on California Wildfires” | Science, Climate & Tech News

The recent wildfires that swept through Los Angeles this month were not sparked by climate change. However, it did exacerbate the situation in a significant way, according to a swift analysis.

The blazes that ignited on January 7 took officials by surprise as they quickly escalated in scale, consuming well-known neighborhoods, necessitating the evacuation of 190,000 individuals, and claiming 28 lives.

President Donald Trump was embroiled in a public dispute with governor and political adversary Gavin Newsom regarding accountability for the fires, prior to their seemingly amicable meeting on Friday.

The initial blazes were intensified into massive fires by the notorious Santa Ana winds—hot, dry winds most prevalent during winter, reaching speeds of up to 99 mph. Scientists are still investigating whether climate change alters these dehydrating winds.

However, global warming has increased the likelihood of the hot, dry conditions that fueled the intense fires by approximately 35% and intensified them by about 6%, according to a global team of 32 scientists from World Weather Attribution (WWA).

The global temperature has already risen by an average of 1.3C since humans began extensively burning fossil fuels.

In the Los Angeles area, the elevated temperatures have parched the chaparral vegetation, transforming it into fuel that accelerates wildfires.

Additionally, research revealed that the fire season in Los Angeles, characterized by highly combustible drought conditions, has extended by 23 days each year, and the low rainfall between October and December is more than twice as common.

While it’s evident that climate change contributes to these trends, the researchers have yet to determine the exact impact, owing to the complexity of local geography and insufficient data.

Dr. Clair Barnes from WWA and Imperial College London stated: “Drought conditions are increasingly extending into winter, raising the possibility of fires igniting during powerful Santa Ana winds that can transform small sparks into deadly blazes.”

“If we do not transition away from fossil fuels that contribute to global warming more rapidly, California will continue to become hotter, drier, and more fire-prone.”

John Abatzoglou, a climatology professor at the University of California Merced and a contributor to the study, remarked: “This situation represents a perfect storm of climate-driven and weather-induced fires affecting urban areas.”

The ‘fundamental solution’ to preventing more fires

Last week, President Trump threatened to withhold federal disaster funding for Los Angeles unless Governor Gavin Newsom implemented voter ID requirements and made adjustments to the city’s water management policies.

Mr. Trump, who recently revoked numerous environmental regulations, has reiterated false claims that a conservation program for a rare fish led to fire hydrants being out of service.

Researchers have called for a comprehensive modernization of water infrastructure, which is currently designed to address typical structural fires but is now inadequate for the high demands posed by rapidly spreading wildfires.

They have also identified other policies unrelated to climate change that contribute to the issue, like constructing housing in areas prone to wildfires.

Governor Newsom has ordered an independent inquiry into the water pressure loss affecting hydrants.

Patrick Gonzalez, a climate change scientist and forest ecologist at Berkeley University in California, who was not involved in the study, emphasized: “The primary solution to avert catastrophic wildfires is to reduce carbon emissions from vehicles, power generation, and other human activities causing climate change.”

‘Take this seriously’

The researchers established their conclusions by contrasting a computer simulation of the prevailing conditions against a simulation of the climate that would have existed without human-induced warming and by utilizing existing research.

This analysis complements earlier studies from UCLA indicating that climate change is responsible for about a quarter of the fuel that ignites these fires.

This rapid analysis hasn’t been formally peer-reviewed, as required for publication in a scientific journal, but it employs peer-reviewed methodologies.

Dr. Gonzalez stated that this is “aligned with published studies demonstrating that human-driven climate change has heightened the heat that fuels wildfires”.

Prof. Gabi Hegerl, a climate scientist from Edinburgh University who was not part of the study, described it as a “thoroughly researched result that should be taken seriously”.