House Republicans Secure Narrow 3-Seat Majority Following Final Race Call in 2024 Elections
Seven Republican representatives lost their positions, but the party gained new seats in Pennsylvania, Alaska, Colorado, and Michigan, resulting in a three-seat majority.
WASHINGTON—The Republicans will hold 220 seats in the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress, solidifying their majority caucus following the final call on Dec. 5 for the last outstanding election results.
However, some races were so close that the outcomes, determined by just a few hundred votes, required recounts and legal procedures to finalize. This process wrapped up on Dec. 4, almost a month after the Election Day on Nov. 5.
Additionally, Democrats went on to flip a Republican-held seat in California’s 45th district, located within the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area. The Democratic nominee, labor attorney Derek Tran, narrowly defeated two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) by 613 votes, with the result called on Nov. 27. This district was seen as competitive, classified as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. Voting patterns diverged along county lines, with voters in Los Angeles County favoring Tran, while Orange County narrowly backed Steel.
In Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, two-term Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks triumphed over Democratic nominee Christina Bohannan by just 798 votes, with that contest also called on Nov. 27. This race was anticipated to be fiercely competitive, similarly rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report.
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These results finalize the vote counting in the 2024 federal elections, confirming Republican control over both chambers of the 119th Congress from 2025 to 2027.
The House majority will be slim, consisting of just three seats, a decrease from the five-seat cushion following the 2022 midterm elections.
The victory of President-elect Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election also signifies conservative control over all three branches of government, with six of the nine current justices of the U.S. Supreme Court appointed by Republican presidents and deemed conservative jurists.
Losses and Gains
Among the incumbents who lost their re-election bids in 2024 are Steel and Duarte, as well as Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) and Reps. Marc Molinaro, Anthony D’Esposito, and Brandon Williams from New York. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) also lost her reelection, although Trump plans to nominate her as the Secretary of Labor once he takes office on Jan. 20, 2025.
Despite these losses, Republicans were able to gain five additional seats. In Alaska’s at-large district, Republican nominee Nick Begich bested Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) by a two-percentage-point margin. The GOP also captured two House seats in Northeastern Pennsylvania: Ryan Mackenzie won against Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) in the 7th District, while Republican businessman Robert Bresnahan triumphed over Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) in the 8th District.
Other Republican wins include State Rep. Gabe Evans (R) in Colorado’s 8th Congressional district, defeating Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D), and former state Sen. Tom Barrett (R) securing victory over Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. in Michigan’s 7th district, an open election to succeed Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), who was elected to the U.S. Senate from Michigan, taking over from retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).
Vacancies
Even with their victories, Republicans will not commence the 119th Congress with a complete majority. Several members have been chosen by Trump for positions in the executive branch, requiring them to resign their House seats to assume their new roles.
Departing members include Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), appointed as National Security Adviser at cabinet rank. Waltz will begin his term in the 119th Congress on Jan. 3, only to resign 17 days later on Jan. 20 to take up his new role, which does not necessitate Senate confirmation. Likewise, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is expected to resign if her nomination as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is confirmed by the Senate.
It is highly probable that special elections for these seats will result in Republican victories, given their partisan ratings and electoral history.
One former House Republican, Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), was nominated by Trump for the attorney general role but withdrew shortly after amid significant opposition. Gaetz resigned from the 118th Congress right after his nomination, and despite his withdrawal, he has declared he will not take a seat in the 119th Congress. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) has already announced plans for special elections to fill the vacancies of Gaetz and Waltz.
The immediate departures of Waltz and Gaetz, along with Stefanik’s anticipated exit, will result in the conference having a slim majority of just 217 members in a House comprising 432 representatives. During this period, Republicans will require unanimous party support to pass legislation, as any unexpected vacancy could grant House Democrats the advantage in numbers.
