House Set to Vote on Budget Blueprint Despite Uncertain Backing

WASHINGTON—On February 25, the U.S. House of Representatives is anticipated to cast a vote on a budget framework aimed at advancing President Donald Trump’s policy objectives, though the result of this vote is uncertain.

This resolution represents the initial phase towards enacting House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) ambitious “one big, beautiful bill” funding strategy, which aims to consolidate all of Trump’s core initiatives into a singular extensive package. It would permit House committees to implement spending reductions and propose budgetary policies concerning border security, defense, energy, and tax regulations.

Specifically, the blueprint mandates a minimum of $1.5 trillion in spending reductions over the next decade, allows for $4.5 trillion in tax reductions, and proposes an increase in the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.

However, ongoing rifts within the House GOP regarding various aspects of the blueprint, particularly its possible effects on Medicaid and the federal deficit, contribute to the ambiguity surrounding the vote outcome. Several Republicans have expressed their opposition to the current version of the blueprint.

With the Republicans controlling only 218 seats compared to Democrats’ 215, Johnson can afford only one dissent on the proposal—prompting the possibility that the resolution could ultimately be withdrawn before the vote takes place.

Despite these challenges, Johnson and House Republican leaders maintain that they expect the resolution to pass during the current week.

Contention Over Medicaid and Spending Cuts

This uncertainty coincides with growing backlash against Johnson from several Republicans concerning a directive in the budget plan that instructs the House Energy and Commerce Committee to identify $880 billion in spending cuts. Such drastic reductions would almost certainly require significant cuts to Medicaid funding.

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Democrats have already accused Republicans of intent to reduce Medicaid funding; however, Johnson and GOP leaders assert that any reductions in Medicaid would stem from efforts to eliminate fraud and abuse within the program.

Nonetheless, several Republicans from competitive districts are wary due to the vagueness of the plan and the potential political repercussions from significant cuts to the entitlement program.

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) expressed her concerns during a February 24 Fox News appearance, seeking “clarity” from leadership on the implications of discussions revolving around $2 trillion in spending cuts over a decade. She specifically questioned how Medicaid would be impacted, stating, “Within the $2 trillion they wish to cut, how does Medicaid fit in?”

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) echoed similar concerns, revealing that he discussed the Medicaid issue during a phone call with Trump.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), whose Omaha district supported Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, has yet to confirm his vote for this package.

Conversely, conservative members of the House GOP also share reservations.

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) has made it clear that she opposes the current version of the blueprint.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has also indicated his disapproval of the budget plan.

Senate Republicans remain doubtful about Johnson’s ability to unify his narrow majority and have already advanced an alternative two-part proposal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) describes this plan as offering “optionality” to the White House.

For Johnson, who stepped into his role as speaker in October 2023, a successful vote would enhance his credibility among both skeptical senators and Trump.

Speaking at an Americans for Prosperity event on February 24, Johnson requested prayers as the vote approaches, underscoring the high stakes involved.

“This is a plea for prayer,” Johnson stated. “Please keep this in your thoughts, as it is a high-stakes situation, and everyone is aware of that.”

Despite acknowledging the risk of multiple defections, he expressed confidence that “we’ll get there.”

In addressing his critics, Johnson emphasized that a vote supporting the blueprint does not equate to endorsing any specific legislation.

The ultimate form of the package will not be finalized until after weeks or months of deliberation by House committees to pinpoint spending reductions and formulate spending and policy proposals.