Nevada, a Swing State, Starts Election Day with GOP Leading Democrats by 43,200 Votes

In Las Vegas, over 1 million Nevadans, which is nearly 53 percent of the state’s registered voters, have already voted in the 2024 election. Registered Republicans have turned out in higher numbers than Democrats in this triple-tier battleground state, where nonpartisan voters will play a crucial role in deciding the outcome.

According to the Nevada secretary of state’s daily 9 a.m. update on Nov. 4, a total of 1,072,640 registered Nevadans had already voted either by mail or during the Oct. 19–Nov. 1 early voting period.

Of those votes, registered Republicans accounted for 405,602, or 43 percent of the tally, with 247,263 opting for in-person early voting and 158,339 voting by mail. This represents about two-thirds (67 percent) of the state’s 600,000 registered Republicans.

Registered Democrats, on the other hand, had cast 362,424 votes, with more than 150,000 voting early and over 212,000 voting by mail, making up 59 percent of the nearly 610,000 registered Democrats in the state.

Although GOP voters have a lead of nearly 43,200 more in-person early votes, Democrats have mailed in approximately 65,000 more ballots, according to data from the secretary of state’s office.

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Before the last few days of the two-week early voting period, Democrats were trailing Republicans in turnout by as much as 6 percent.

This early vote turnout pattern differs from recent election cycles, where Democrats typically established a “blue wall” in mail-in ballots that Republicans struggled to surpass with Election Day turnout.

The 2024 Election Day has not only seen a higher voter turnout but also an increase in registered voters. According to a statement released by Nevada Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar on Nov. 1, there was a rise of 60,076 active registered voters in October, bringing the state’s total enrollment to 2,035,166 “active” registered voters. Of these, 609,954 are Democrats (29.97 percent), 600,754 are Republicans (29.52 percent), 675,982 are nonpartisan, and the rest belong to various minor political parties.

The current trends have GOP supporters feeling optimistic that former President Donald Trump could become the first Republican to win the Silver State since 2004. Challenger Sam Brown could also potentially unseat Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), and there is a chance that at least one Democrat-held Las Vegas-area congressional seat could be flipped in the Nov. 5 election.

However, the critical factor in determining the election outcome will be the nonpartisan voters, who now constitute the largest voting constituency in Nevada.

State data shows that 304,614 Nevadans not affiliated with either party or with third parties have cast their votes in the election—159,096 by mail and 145,518 in-person during early voting. This means that over 55 percent of nonpartisans, or more than 370,000 out of 675,982 registered nonpartisans, have yet to vote. In comparison, less than 32 percent of registered Republicans and 41 percent of Democrats have not yet voted.

The turnout of nonpartisans and their voting preferences will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the Nov. 5 election in Nevada.

Unlike past elections, mail-in ballots are being counted early, and county election officials will begin counting early in-person votes on the morning of Election Day. This policy change, enacted in April, should lead to quicker result reporting after polls close at 7 p.m., with the first release of numbers, including the early vote tallies, expected to be substantial.

In the 2020 election, the Nevada presidential race was not called until four days after Election Day due to the need to count hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots after polls closed. Former presidential candidate Joe Biden won the 2020 election in Nevada by a margin of 2.39 percent, with less than 33,580 votes.

Nevada is known as one of the nation’s best bellwether states, with the candidate who wins in Nevada going on to win the White House in 27 of the past 30 presidential elections, most recently in 2016.

Although Vice President Kamala Harris has consistently led in Nevada polls since becoming the Democratic nominee, two late surveys show Trump surging as a clear favorite. An Atlas Intel survey conducted on Nov. 1–2 had Trump leading by 5.5 percentage points, while a Susquehanna poll from Oct. 28–31 had Trump ahead by 6 percentage points.

On the other hand, a New York Times/Siena survey from Oct. 24–Nov. 2 showed Harris leading by 2–3 percentage points, and an Emerson poll from Oct. 29–31 had her up by 1 percent.

Aside from the candidate races, six proposed constitutional amendments on Nevada’s ballot are also driving turnout, including measures such as adopting a ranked voting primary system, requiring voter ID for ballot casting, and ensuring the right to abortion access.

Nevada is one of 10 states where voters will see an abortion measure on their Nov. 5 ballots following the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade.