NH Journal Poll: 62 Percent Will Vote for Trump Even If Convicted

Loyalty to former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire is strong. In the NH Journal’s Co/efficient poll, 62% of GOP primary voters in the Granite State said they would vote to make Trump president even if he were convicted of a felony.

In the poll, 57% also said they would vote for a second Trump presidency even if he were “serving time in prison” on Election Day.

“As a pollster, I wonder if there is any other political figure in America who could generate this level of loyalty,” Co/efficient CEO Ryan Munce. “It will be difficult for any Republican to peel away these voters.”

Trump is scheduled to speak at Windham High School in New Hampshire on Tuesday afternoon. New Hampshire holds the nation’s first primary.

The former president has consistently led in both national and New Hampshire polls since his first criminal indictment by Manhattan prosecutor Alvin Bragg in April. He has now been indicted three times, with one case delivering a superseding indictment.

Despite legal challenges, Trump had the support of 43% of New Hampshire GOP primary voters, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie were tied for second place with 9%. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley was at 7%, and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., was tied with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 5%.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (4%) edged out former Vice President Mike Pence (3%).

While Trump’s approval was a solid 57%-33% in New Hampshire, he actually dropped by a net -7 since mid-June.

New Hampshire’s Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is more popular among Granite State likely GOP primary voters than the former president, with a 60% approval and a 26% disapproval. Gov. Sununu announced he will not run for president next year, but he has vowed to campaign for GOP candidates to try to defeat Trump.

Just 25% of GOP primary voters said they believe Trump committed a crime related to the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol protest, as special counsel Jack Smith has charged. The remaining 75% either believed Trump is completely innocent (35%), or they were not sure about his guilt or innocence but believed he is “only being prosecuted because he’s Donald Trump.”

New Hampshire Republicans can be divided into four categories, according to pollsters: traditional Reagan Republicans, 42%; Trump Republicans, 28%; Libertarian Republicans, 22%; and Christian/Evangelical Republicans, 8%.

Trump led among all groups of Republicans except Christian/Evangelicals, who backed Haley (36%) more than any other candidate. Among traditional Republicans, sometimes viewed as “establishment Republicans,” Trump had the support of 29% while second place went to “undecided” at 18%. DeSantis was third at 15%.

“Impressive loyalty, and yet, he still has under 50% primary support,” veteran GOP strategist Jim Merrill observed of Trump. “There remain opportunities for primary challengers to go on the offensive, draw contrasts more forcefully, and get creative.

“But they’re climbing an awfully steep hill to make it happen, and the clock is ticking.”

The NH Journal’s Co/efficient poll of 862 likely Republican primary voters was conducted Aug. 5-7, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.33 percentage points.