Republicans May Secure a Temporary Zero-Seat Majority in the House

December 27, 2024 TruthUSA

The resignations of Matt Gaetz, Mike Waltz, and Elise Stefanik will reduce the Republican majority to zero seats. Any additional departures could enable Democrats to reclaim the majority.

WASHINGTON–As the House of Representatives reconvenes on Jan. 3, 2025, to kick off the 119th Congress for a two-year term, Republicans will start with a slim majority.

The party secured 220 seats in the House, providing a three-seat edge over the majority threshold of 218; however, this count is expected to drop in January. The impending loss of seats could threaten the GOP’s capacity to pass legislation and potentially jeopardize control of the House to the Democratic Party.

Presented below are the anticipated vacancies in the House along with the procedures for filling them.

Florida’s 1st District

This district, which encompasses much of the Florida panhandle, has been represented by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) for seven years until Nov. 13, 2024. On that date, Gaetz resigned after the announcement of his nomination by President-elect Donald Trump for the role of U.S. Attorney General in the new administration. While Gaetz received support from certain conservative factions, the nomination also faced bipartisan disapproval due to allegations of misconduct outlined in a report from the House Ethics Committee. Opposition from necessary GOP senators for confirmation prompted Gaetz to withdraw his name from consideration shortly thereafter.

Despite resigning from the 118th Congress, Gaetz has been re-elected to the 119th Congress, meaning he could, in theory, reclaim his seat in the House. Although Gaetz has stated his intention to not serve in the new Congress, a recent post on social media indicated he might reconsider.

On Dec. 23, the Ethics Committee published its findings from an investigation accusing Gaetz of engaging in sexual activities with a minor, soliciting prostitutes, substance abuse, and contravening House regulations. Gaetz has denied all allegations and has not faced any criminal charges.

On Nov. 13, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) informed The Epoch Times that he had urged Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to initiate the special election process for Florida’s 1st District since the U.S. Constitution prohibits governors from making temporary appointments to the House, unlike the Senate.

DeSantis signed an executive order on Nov. 22 to schedule a special primary election for the district on Jan. 28, 2025, followed by a special general election on Apr. 1, 2025. In cases where there’s no contest for a recognized party’s nomination in the primary, the special general election will coincide with the primary date—January 28 in this instance. Gaetz’s seat possesses a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) score of R+19, ranking it as Florida’s most Republican district.

Consequently, Gaetz’s seat will remain vacant for a minimum of 25 to 90 days starting Jan. 3, 2025, the inaugural day for the new Congress. This will decrease the strength of the House Republican Conference from 220 to 219, and the overall House total down to 434. Despite this, the majority threshold remains at 218, leaving Republicans with a two-seat majority.

Florida’s 6th District

This district, which includes parts of northeastern Florida along the Atlantic coast, is currently held by Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.). He has been appointed by Trump to serve as his national security adviser starting on Jan. 20, 2025, coinciding with the inauguration date. The cabinet-level position does not require Senate confirmation, allowing Waltz to assume office immediately upon taking the oath. Thus, Waltz has resigned from Congress, effective Jan. 20.

Since Congress meets on Jan. 3, Waltz will participate in the 119th Congress, elected on Nov. 5, but only serve for a duration of 17 days. Like the 1st District, DeSantis has issued an executive order to call for a special election, with the same timeline as for the 1st district.

The leading Republican candidate for this seat, which has a Cook PVI score of R+14, is state Sen. Randy Fine, who represents the area in the Florida Senate. Trump has endorsed Fine, alongside backing from U.S. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and the three leaders of the House Republican Conference—Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.). Fine is contending against two other GOP candidates.

Therefore, similar to the 1st District, Waltz’s seat will be unoccupied from eight to 70 days starting on Jan. 20, 2025. This will bring the House Republican Conference from 219 to 218 and reduce the overall House count to 433. At this juncture, the majority threshold will adjust to 217 members, granting Republicans a one-seat majority.

New York’s 21st District

This district, which spans a significant area of upstate New York from the Canadian border down to Saratoga, is represented by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), chair of the House Republican Conference. Trump has nominated Stefanik to hold a Cabinet-level position as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, which also requires Senate confirmation.

If Stefanik is confirmed, she will have to resign from her congressional seat. The ambiguity regarding the timeline for confirmation hearings and a final vote means that Stefanik is anticipated to be part of the 119th Congress starting Jan. 3, 2025.

Should Stefanik choose to resign, New York Public Officers Law mandates the governor to announce a special election within 10 days following the resignation. There will be no primary; the district’s designated party committees will determine the nominees. A special general election must be conducted within 70 to 80 days following the proclamation’s announcement.

As such, it becomes challenging to ascertain when Stefanik’s seat will be vacated and the duration of such a vacancy. If she resigns prior to the special elections for the two vacant Florida House seats, the House Republican Conference will decrease from 218 to 217, and the total strength of the House will drop to 432. At that point, the majority threshold will remain at 217 members, placing Republicans at a zero-seat majority.

Consequences

The temporary reduction of the majority to zero will adversely affect the House Republican Conference. To enact legislation, they will necessitate the complete support of every member within the conference. Achieving such unanimity proved to be a significant challenge during the 118th Congress, with some conservative members primarily from the House Freedom Caucus joining Democrats in voting against GOP initiatives.

A pivotal vote took place on Oct. 3, 2023, when eight Republicans sided with Democrats to oust then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from his position. Following this, with a four-seat majority, certain Republicans consistently threatened to initiate a “motion to vacate the chair” against Johnson. The singular attempt—brought forth by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)—failed when House Democrats sided to table the motion.

In summary, dissent from even a handful of House GOP members could jeopardize the Trump administration’s legislative agenda, which many House Republicans strive to advance. Trump has already called for primary challenges in the 2026 midterm elections against GOP members who do not align with him, including Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas).

If any additional Republican members beyond Stefanik were to resign or pass away during the 119th Congress, and if Democrats prevail in the special elections, the GOP could relinquish control of the House.

The House Democratic Caucus currently holds 215 seats and requires just three more to achieve a majority in the entire 435-member assembly. Should this happen, the Democrats could successfully initiate a motion to vacate the chair, place Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as the new House Speaker, and implement a new House rules package as well as restructure the standing committees to ensure Democratic majorities.

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