Russia’s Nuclear Strategy Changes Keep the West Guessing
Former CIA officer warns that, “Putin is practicing for the end of the world. Don’t assume he’s just bluffing.”
Russia declares it is reassessing its nuclear doctrine, the basis for deciding on a nuclear strike, and recently conducted a significant missile test.
Amid Russian leaders suggesting the use of nuclear weapons whenever the West alters the situation in Ukraine, is this mere posturing or a genuine change in stance? Should the West reassess the risk level? And how important is a nuclear doctrine?
On Sept. 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned about the repercussions of the US and NATO allowing Ukraine to utilize longer-range weapons, supplied by them, for strikes deep inside Russia, potentially triggering a conflict with NATO.
This ambiguous stance aims to dissuade NATO from permitting Ukraine to deploy such weapons, something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been advocating for.
Russia’s current nuclear doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an attack by an enemy or in response to a conventional attack posing an existential threat to the country.
In the post-Soviet era, the threshold for nuclear strikes has been raised, with the doctrine now requiring a crisis endangering the state’s existence for nuclear weapons to be utilized.
Tim Ripley, a military analyst, emphasized that Russia would resort to nuclear weapons only in dire circumstances, such as a scenario where Putin’s regime faces a significant defeat.
Putin recently oversaw a large-scale nuclear exercise to test the nation’s nuclear missile capabilities, reaffirming the Kremlin’s belief in the nuclear arsenal as a guarantor of sovereignty and security.
The Soviet Union and the US recognized a strategic stalemate by the early 1960s, with both nations acknowledging the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear war.
The US and Russia each possess around 5,500 nuclear warheads, limited by the START treaty, though Moscow suspended its participation in the agreement last year.
No ‘First Strike’ Capability
Podvig clarified that the Soviets, or Russians, have never had the capability for a “first strike,” and formalized a “no first strike” policy in 1982.
The path to mutually assured destruction has deterred both sides from testing each other’s resolve, as neither side desires a full-scale nuclear exchange.
Ripley emphasized that Russia’s disclosures about its nuclear capability are strategic messages aimed at cautioning adversaries.
Recent drills by Russia underscore the deadly capabilities of the country’s nuclear arsenal, serving as a reminder of the potential consequences of escalating conflicts.
Russians ‘Send a Message’
These exercises are conducted to send a message and maintain a deterrent effect, ensuring adversaries are aware of Russia’s nuclear capabilities.
Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, nuclear weapons in former Soviet republics were consolidated into Russia, with Ukraine relinquishing its nuclear arsenal in 1994.
Ukraine’s decision to surrender its nuclear weapons was influenced by international pressure, as the country was presented with a choice between becoming a non-nuclear state or facing isolation.
Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
