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Stalled Progress: The High Costs of California’s High-Speed Rail Project


Analysis

In 2013, I referred to California’s high-speed rail (HSR) as “the gift that keeps on taking.” Now, over a decade later, it remains a persistent disappointment—a zombified infrastructure vision consuming billions without significant progress.

In 2008, voters approved Proposition 1A, enticed by the promise of a bullet train linking San Francisco and Los Angeles, with branches to Sacramento and San Diego. Fast forward to 2025: we don’t see the anticipated 800 miles of track. Not even the reduced 171-mile Merced-to-Bakersfield line is underway. Instead, we have a solitary 119-mile segment from Madera to Shafter, far from significant global transit hubs.

This initiative exemplifies cognitive dissonance. Marketed as an environmentally friendly dream, it has manifested as a financial nightmare. Despite repeated claims from current HSR leadership of “progress,” costs have skyrocketed, timelines have vanished, and the ultimate completion date keeps being pushed further away.

Supporters cling to the idea that HSR will address issues ranging from climate change to urban sprawl. However, let’s face it—this train isn’t taking anyone to the destinations they desire, literally or figuratively.

Let’s take a closer look at the finances. The original cost estimate in 2008 stood at $33 billion for a substantial stretch of the proposed statewide system. Today, we’re facing a cost exceeding $100 billion—and it’s still rising. The so-called Initial Operating Segment (IOS), a rail line through virtually uninhabited areas, is projected to cost $35 billion. To date, $13 billion has been spent… on what exactly remains unclear. This is where taxpayers’ money goes to vanish.

And who, exactly, is meant to ride this train?

A 2023 HSR Authority report quietly reduced ridership forecasts by 25 percent. Even the Authority can’t ignore what post-COVID realities and logical reasoning reveal: When given the choice, Californians prefer the convenience of their own vehicles or flights that actually land where they want to be. The Madera-to-Shafter corridor lacks connections to major population centers, attractions, or economic zones. It’s akin to establishing a luxury cruise service between two small ponds.
And things are getting worse. Despite years of promoting this project as a climate hero, the emissions narrative is nearly laughable. A 2012 UC Berkeley study indicated that emissions from construction—especially from cement production—would take generations to offset based on optimistic ridership projections for the complete system. Given that we won’t have the full system, and with declining ridership numbers, the carbon payback for the IOS may stretch into 2060 or beyond. In other words, most Californians alive today will never witness any environmental benefit from this project. Meanwhile, construction emissions might actually exacerbate the very climate issues that HSR aims to address.

Meanwhile, billions are funneled into the pockets of politically connected contractors, unions, and bureaucrats. As always, follow the money. The true beneficiaries aren’t commuters or taxpayers—they’re the consultants drafting reports, politicians seeking media exposure, and unions profiting from project labor agreements while construction drags on for years. It’s the great California scheme, wrapped in green rhetoric.

The comprehensive route from San Francisco to Los Angeles/Anaheim is now estimated to cost as much as $128 billion. Divide that figure by the projected distance of the track, and the cost exceeds $200 million per mile. That’s nearly three times higher than the original total projected cost for the entire system.

The real victims? Thousands of families displaced from their homes, farms, and businesses due to eminent domain—some lacking proper compensation, others ensnared in bureaucratic red tape. Their lives were disrupted for the sake of a few concrete pillars standing in a field resembling tombstones for common sense.

Let’s not overlook the financing maneuvers. The HSR Authority relies on California’s cap-and-trade program, which allocates about $1 billion annually to the project. That’s money extracted from everything impacted by carbon pricing—energy bills, gasoline prices, even food costs. Essentially, Californians are paying more for their everyday expenses to fund a train they’ll never use.

Then there’s the “last-mile” conundrum that no one in Sacramento seems eager to address. Let’s imagine, for a moment, that HSR manages to connect San Francisco and Los Angeles. Even then, riders will have to assemble their journey using taxis, subways, rideshares, or rented bikes just to reach their final destination. This isn’t transit; it’s a scavenger hunt.

We were promised a European-style rail achievement. What we received is a taxpayer-funded endurance test on how long a state can continue to waste money on a losing venture while branding it as visionary. The reality? California’s high-speed rail is not a train for the people; it’s a gravy train.

And just like every gravy train, it will keep rolling as long as someone is willing to pay the bill. Unfortunately, that someone is you.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of The Epoch Times.



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