Stay updated on the US election frontrunner and make your prediction with our interactive polling game | US News
The upcoming presidential election on 5 November is expected to be the most closely contested race since at least 2000.
Recent polls show Kamala Harris holding a slight lead over Donald Trump.
However, the outcome of the US election is not solely determined by the popular vote, but by the results in key states.
How does the US election work?
With “safe” states accounted for, Harris has 225 electoral college votes and Trump has 219 in the race to reach 270.
In the eight critical swing states with a total of 94 electoral votes, Harris needs 45 to secure victory while Trump requires 51.
As of now, Harris is leading in all of these states.
Despite Harris’s lead in the swing states, Trump could still secure victory by winning critical states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Although trailing in polls, Trump is favored by bookmakers, indicating potential shifts in the campaign landscape leading up to the election.
Make your predictions for each swing state and we’ll reveal the likely president based on your selections.
Swing states
The outcome in many states is already predictable. For instance, California and New York have consistently voted Democrat for the past three decades.
In contrast, Texas has not voted Democrat since 1976, with only five states switching sides in the 2020 election.
Hence, the critical eight swing states are paramount to the election outcome.
If Trump fails to secure Pennsylvania, his path to victory narrows considerably, necessitating victories in at least four of the six largest remaining states.
Conversely, a Pennsylvania win for Trump, along with two other critical states, could lead to his presidency.
While recent polling data for Nebraska’s second district is lacking, that single electoral vote could prove decisive given certain state results.
In a scenario where Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan but loses North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, he would be at 269 – Nebraska 2nd could provide the winning vote.
What happens in case of a tie in the electoral college?
How does the US election work?
Each of the fifty states, plus Washington DC, holds their own vote for president which is independent from the others.
Each state is worth an amount of “electoral college votes” – effectively points – related to the population of the state.
California, the most populous US state, has 54 electoral college votes representing their 39 million population.
Wyoming, the smallest US state, has three electoral college votes representing their 600,000 population.
There are 538 “points” in total. To become president, a candidate must get to 270 (more than half). It doesn’t matter what combination of states gets them there, but some routes are easier than others.
In most states – all except Nebraska and Maine – the winning candidate in a state gets all of the electoral votes available.
So if Donald Trump was to win Florida by a single vote, he would get all 30 of their electoral college votes, the same as if he got 100% of the popular vote there.
In Nebraska, two votes are allocated to who wins the state overall, and one each to the candidate who wins in three districts of Nebraska – making five overall. It’s the same in Maine but there are only four electoral college votes up for grabs there, so its other votes are split across two districts rather than three.
Who is the favorite according to bookmakers?
While polls provide insights, betting markets offer an alternative perspective on the election outcome based on where bettors place their bets.
These markets reflect the collective belief of individuals investing in the election’s outcome, indicating possible shifts in the future campaign landscape.
Sky News is monitoring the odds of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, translating the odds into percentage terms to highlight each candidate’s implied probability of victory.
The percentages reflect the overall chances of each candidate winning, not necessarily the exact vote share or electoral college distribution.
Who is the people’s choice?
Public sentiment also plays a role, with personal preferences influencing candidate favorability.
While Donald Trump’s unfavorable ratings outweigh favorable ones, he has seen a recent increase in popularity.
Conversely, Kamala Harris experienced a spike in favorability after becoming the official candidate, but has since dropped to levels similar to Trump’s increased popularity.
Monitor these trackers as the election date approaches to observe the evolving predictions of polls and betting markets, shedding light on the presidential race’s trajectory.
The Data and Forensics team is a diverse unit dedicated to transparent journalism at Sky News. We collect, analyze, and visualize data to share data-driven stories. By combining traditional reporting with advanced analysis techniques, such as satellite imagery and social media, we strive to enhance understanding of global events while showcasing the journalistic process.
