Stefanik’s Potential Path to NY Governorship: Poll Insights

Political analytics firm GrayHouse published polling results on April 27. The data revealed that Stefanik, 40, would likely secure a GOP Primary victory over Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with Stefanik predicted to garner 44 percent of the votes, Lawler 7 percent, and Blakeman 5 percent. Notably, 44 percent of voters remain undecided, and all three candidates are considered potential runners.

When asked by NY1 whether she believes she would be a stronger GOP nominee than Blakeman, Stefanik responded on April 16, saying, “I think there are a lot of candidates in the mix. I’m honored to have my name in the mix as well. We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to remove Kathy Hochul once and for all. Democrats have had a one-party rule in Albany for too long, leading to a decline in our state.”

The GrayHouse poll demonstrates that 61 percent of New York voters believe it’s time for a change in leadership. Among Independent and Democratic voters, 75 percent and 34 percent, respectively, express a desire for new leadership.

According to Marist Poll, Hochul’s approval rating has remained stagnant since April 2024, with disapproval increasing from 42 percent to 46 percent.

One of Stefanik’s advantages is her name recognition; the GrayHouse poll shows her name is recognized by 69 percent of New Yorkers. Lawler and Blakeman lag behind at 58 percent and 36 percent, respectively.

Her prominence may stem from her connection to the Trump administration. President Donald Trump selected Stefanik to serve as U.N. Ambassador, but withdrew his nomination in late March to protect the slim House GOP majority.

In a hypothetical gubernatorial matchup between Hochul and Stefanik, polls indicate Hochul leading with 46 percent to Stefanik’s 40 percent, while 14 percent remain undecided.

While New York is predominantly a blue state, recent elections have seen an increase in GOP support. Trump secured 600,000 more votes in New York between the 2016 and 2024 elections.

The election for the next governor of New York is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

As of publishing, neither Stefanik nor Hochul’s offices have provided a comment to The Epoch Times.