US News

Study Warns That More Than 40% of U.S. Adults Could Face Liver Disease Risk by 2050


According to recent research, nearly half of all American adults may experience chronic liver disease by 2050, projecting a significant increase in cases that will require transplants and specialized treatment.

The study forecasts that metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) will impact 121.9 million adults, roughly 41 percent of the U.S. population.

Liver Disease Cases Expected to Rise by 2050

The new study, released in JAMA Network Open on Friday, predicts that by 2050, the number of adults with MASLD—formally referred to as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease—could increase from 86.3 million in 2020 to around 121.9 million. This represents about 41.4 percent of the adult U.S. population.

MASLD is a condition characterized by the accumulation of excess fat in the liver, which can lead to liver damage. It is the leading cause of chronic liver disease in the United States.

The researchers utilized a microsimulation model to simulate population health outcomes over time, examining the progression of MASLD in over 2.8 million individuals.

While the study did not specifically investigate the reasons behind the increase in cases, MASLD is strongly associated with obesity and diabetes, two significant health concerns that are also on the rise.

The incidence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), a more severe variation of MASLD, is predicted to increase from nearly 6 percent of U.S. adults in 2020 to almost 8 percent by 2050.

The rising prevalence of MASLD is anticipated to lead to serious health complications.

The research team estimated that the incidence of new liver cancer cases, known as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), could nearly double between 2046 and 2050, while liver transplant needs are projected to quadruple during the same timeframe.

The proportion of liver-related deaths is expected to climb from approximately 1 percent of overall mortality in 2020 to 2.4 percent by 2050, as indicated by the study’s findings.

The authors of the research underscored the urgent need for healthcare systems to prepare for these challenges. “These results indicate that health systems should strategize for substantial increases in HCC cases and the demand for [liver transplants],” they stated.

Older Adults Most Affected

The study pointed out disparities in disease progression across age groups, with adults aged 80 and above predicted to experience the most notable rises in MASLD prevalence.

Moreover, the number of patients facing more severe fibrosis stages—indicative of greater liver damage—is also likely to increase, suggesting a trend towards more advanced disease cases.

Despite these projections, the authors noted that innovations in treatment could help alter this trajectory. New drugs like resmetirom show potential in enhancing liver health and possibly slowing MASLD progression, according to the authors.
“Although the anticipated increase in MASLD prevalence poses a significant challenge for healthcare systems, it is not unavoidable,” stated the study authors. “By applying preventive measures, investing in research, and readying healthcare systems, we can alleviate the effects of MASLD.”

Lifestyle adjustments can help mitigate the effects of MASLD for those affected by the condition. This includes maintaining a healthy weight, engaging in regular physical activity, and following a balanced diet, which can also aid in preventing or slowing disease progression.



Source link

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.