Study Warns That More Than 40% of U.S. Adults Could Face Liver Disease Risk by 2050
According to recent research, nearly half of all American adults may experience chronic liver disease by 2050, projecting a significant increase in cases that will require transplants and specialized treatment.
Liver Disease Cases Expected to Rise by 2050
The new study, released in JAMA Network Open on Friday, predicts that by 2050, the number of adults with MASLD—formally referred to as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease—could increase from 86.3 million in 2020 to around 121.9 million. This represents about 41.4 percent of the adult U.S. population.
The researchers utilized a microsimulation model to simulate population health outcomes over time, examining the progression of MASLD in over 2.8 million individuals.
The incidence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), a more severe variation of MASLD, is predicted to increase from nearly 6 percent of U.S. adults in 2020 to almost 8 percent by 2050.
The rising prevalence of MASLD is anticipated to lead to serious health complications.
The research team estimated that the incidence of new liver cancer cases, known as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), could nearly double between 2046 and 2050, while liver transplant needs are projected to quadruple during the same timeframe.
The proportion of liver-related deaths is expected to climb from approximately 1 percent of overall mortality in 2020 to 2.4 percent by 2050, as indicated by the study’s findings.
The authors of the research underscored the urgent need for healthcare systems to prepare for these challenges. “These results indicate that health systems should strategize for substantial increases in HCC cases and the demand for [liver transplants],” they stated.
Older Adults Most Affected
The study pointed out disparities in disease progression across age groups, with adults aged 80 and above predicted to experience the most notable rises in MASLD prevalence.
Moreover, the number of patients facing more severe fibrosis stages—indicative of greater liver damage—is also likely to increase, suggesting a trend towards more advanced disease cases.
Lifestyle adjustments can help mitigate the effects of MASLD for those affected by the condition. This includes maintaining a healthy weight, engaging in regular physical activity, and following a balanced diet, which can also aid in preventing or slowing disease progression.