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These 3 Virginia Congressional Races Could Be ‘National Bellwether’: Analyst

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FAIRFAX COUNTY, Va.—Virginia has three competitive races in the 2022 House elections: VA-02, VA-07, and VA-10, and they are all trending Republican in the final days to election night.

A week ago, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved VA-07 from “lean democrat” to “toss-up,” and VA-10 from “solid Democrat” to “likely Democrat.” VA-02 remains a “toss-up,” according to the report. And this week, Fox News moved VA-2 from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.”

All three congressional districts changed due to the Virginia Supreme Court’s redistricting decision in December 2021. All three Republican challengers are running for Congress for the first time, and all three Democrat incumbents are two-term Congresswomen who belonged to the “Class of 2018,” part of the blue wave in the last midterm elections.

“The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether,” veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times.

“If Luria [incumbent in VA-02] wins, it’ll be a better night for Democrats than the conventional wisdom foresees,” he said.

“If Spanberger [incumbent in VA-07] loses a close race to Vega, we could see a GOP victory in line with historic midterm trends of a 20-seat pickup for the party not holding the presidency,” Holsworth added. 

“If Wexton [incumbent in VA-10] loses, it’s a red wave.”

Due to Virginia’s off-year state legislative elections, midterm ballots are short. Hence the vote counts are expected to be quicker than in other states.

Sean Brown, vice president of Axiom Strategies who advises Republican challenger Yesli Vega’s campaign in VA-07, told The Epoch Times that Vega is “going to kick off a big win for Republicans across the country. I do think we’re going to be that first one that goes, and then it will be a night for Republicans.” 

Epoch Times Photo
Former U.S. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (3rd L), Republican Congressional candidate Yesli Vega (4th L), Virginia Delegate Tara Durant (R-Stafford) with deputies at the Stafford County Sheriff’s Office at a campaign event for Vega in Fredericksburg, Va., on Oct. 22, 2022. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

Yesli Vega, a Prince William County supervisor and former police officer, is challenging two-term incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) in Virginia’s most competitive congressional race. 

Brown called the VA-07 race “a bellwether for how Republicans do around the country.” According to him, Virginia’s 7th Congressional District is Democrat-leaning on paper in a normal year with a normal candidate. The District, which mainly spans Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties, has become slightly more Democrat-leaning after redistricting in 2021. 

“But you’ve got a unique candidate with a unique story, running in a year against a candidate from a very unpopular party with an unpopular President and unpopular economy around their neck,” Brown added. “And I think that’s the story we see play out across the country.”

Republicans in Virginia expect Jen Kiggans, a state Senator and a Navy veteran, to unseat Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) in the 2nd Congressional District, which includes Virginia Beach city and nearby localities. A late October poll by the Wason Center of Christopher Newport University (CNU) showed Luria and Kiggans at a 45-point to 45-point tie, with 8 percent of voters still undecided.

In the 10th District, which covers Loudoun County and part of Prince William, Republican candidate Hung Cao, a Navy veteran, takes on Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.).

“If Hung Cao wins in the 10th, then it’s going to be a red wave across the country. That [district] is probably the tightest one with the capability of flipping,” Ron Wright, a co-founder of the Suburban Virginia Republican Coalition, told The Epoch Times.

Wright described the current political cycle as “generational.” 

“This is a whole new Republican generation coming through, whether it’s Glenn Youngkin, Ron DeSantis, Tom Cotton, Yesli [Vega], and Hung Cao,” he said.

“It’s new lifeblood for the [Republican] Party. And that’s where our cycles are. Once you get a generation that stays in and wins, the next generations come again. So you’re seeing all these young conservative Republicans running for office now,” he said, adding that he expected to see many interesting Republican candidates in the race for the 2024 Presidential election.

Which Issues Will Win?

Former Republican Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore said three things mattered a lot in elections: the definition of the district, the dominating issues that will sway independents, and the quality of the candidate. He had helped with the VA-07 and VA-10 campaigns and saw Republican advantages on each of the above factors. 

Epoch Times Photo
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore at a campaign event for Republican Congressional candidate Yesli Vega in Fredericksburg, Va., on Oct. 17, 2022. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

Gilmore said that Virginia’s election results, like in the rest of the nation, would confirm whether the public cared more about Republican campaign issues such as inflation, border, and crimes, or Democrat issues such as abortion and former President Donald Trump. 

The CNU poll in VA-02 showed independents and Republicans considering inflation and the economy as top issues. And the top issue for Democrats in the district was abortion.

He added that the education issue also became prominent in the Virginia midterms. 

“The underlying issue is whether there’s going to be a quality education or whether it’s going to be a pileup indoctrination of culture, which I believe the public is rejecting, and they rejected it in the Youngkin race,” Gilmore told The Epoch Times. “They don’t want to see the schools become indoctrination centers for students.”

On Nov. 1, the three incumbents held a joint press conference criticizing House Republicans’ “commitment to America” midterms agenda that included the goal of “saving and strengthening social security and medicare.” The three Congresswomen interpreted the agenda as cutting these federal programs. 

A day earlier, the Democratic Party of Virginia issued a press release criticizing Vega’s position against abortion.

VA-07 Race

Spanberger has run her re-election campaign as a moderate candidate who isn’t afraid of challenging the authorities. In September, she called for a new Democrat leadership after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) didn’t support her bill to ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks. She has also been running TV ads of endorsements from a local Republican police chief and former Virginia Republican congressman.

For Gilmore, the VA-07 race was the most important because “Abigail Spanberger is a real problem.” “She’s a liberal Democrat. She votes that way, but she pretends to be something different,” he added.

Epoch Times Photo
Silvia Ramirez (L), a member of CASA in Action, the political arm of the immigration rights non-profit, with Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) in Woodbridge, Va., on Oct. 22, 2022. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

Holsworth, the analyst, disagreed. He said that Spanberger was “the best Democratic candidate in the state.” “She has voted mostly with Democrats, but at the same time has certainly worked in a bipartisan way [in Congress],” he said, adding that Spanberger had proven to be “an independent voice.”

“In terms of bipartisan credentials, Spanberger probably has more than Vega right now. But Vega does have an opportunity for some crossover vote,” Holsworth said, referring to Hispanic voters, who previously voted Democrat but now vote Republican.

The Epoch Times has contacted Spanberger’s campaign for comment. 

Hispanic Votes

Hispanic votes make up 17 percent of total voters in the 7th Congressional District.

The election result there would demonstrate how much of the Latino vote has shifted to Republicans, said Wright, adding that some of the heavy Latino precincts in Prince William County would be interesting to follow. The county has about 35 percent of the total voters in the district. 

Wright thought the Hispanic support of Republicans was a continued trend that might have been disrupted by COVID-19 but is now back.

“More middle-class Latino voters are realizing just how damaging democratic policies are. So it’s a shift; they start to realize the tax burden and the economic burdens. And they’re starting to shift their priorities,” said Wright. 

He added that the Hispanic voting results would indicate whether economic and education issues were more important to Latino voters, or racial justice and immigration reform. 

Trump Endorsement

About a week ago, former President Trump endorsed Vega. Spanberger’s campaign used the endorsement to garner more voter support.

Wright said that focusing on Trump wouldn’t work because it didn’t work in the gubernatorial race last year. Former Democrat Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Youngkin’s opponent, had campaigned on tying Youngkin to Trump.

Epoch Times Photo
Virginia Gov. Glen Youngkin (L) at a campaign event for Republican Congressional district candidate Yesli Vega in Fredericksburg, Va., on Oct. 17, 2022. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

The Youngkin Factor

Brown of Axiom Strategies said Vega’s campaign built on the movement that started last year. Youngkin won the governorship by identifying the voter sentiment and running on kitchen table issues. Axiom Strategies advised Youngkin’s campaign last year, and Vega co-led a Hispanic coalition and helped Youngkin win Hispanic votes in the state. 

 “I think when you have one of Spanberger’s top surrogates, [Del. Elizabeth] Guzman (D-Prince William), talking about legislation that would jail parents for not affirming woke [gender] ideology of a nine-year-old, that’s the exact kind of stuff that people rejected last year with what was going on in schools,” he added.

In mid-October, Guzman, a Democratic state delegate, backed down from introducing legislation to expand the definition of child abuse to include inflicting “physical or mental injury” on children because of their gender identity or sexual orientation. When she first announced the bill, she said that parents who don’t affirm their children’s choice of gender identity could incur Child Protective Services (CPS) charges.

Holsworth agrees that Vega is trying to harness the momentum Youngkin had last year. 

But he questioned whether the parental rights issue, which in his view had a lot to do with “people frustrated with a year and a half of COVID and their kids not in school,” would sway independents. 

“It just seems to me that in this election, the issues that are driving voters who are going to make the difference are really other matters. It’s what they think about inflation, what they think about Biden, what they think about the Dobbs decision, what do you think about abortion.”

Youngkin, for his part, has been full-throated in his support for GOP nominees in his state, having attended many rallies for Vega, Kiggans, Cao, and other Republican candidates. His Empowering Virginia Parents PAC (Political Action Committee) has spent over $400,000 for the VA-02, VA-07, and VA-10 races, according to Virginia Public Access Project, a nonprofit organization connecting Virginians with nonpartisan political information. 

When stumping for candidates in and outside Virginia, Youngkin repeatedly said the “red wave” movement that propelled him to victory in last year’s gubernatorial race is “happening again,” and credited Virginia as the “headwaters” of the movement.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Wexton and Luria’s campaigns for comment.

Terri Wu

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Terri Wu is a Washington-based freelance reporter for The Epoch Times covering education and China-related issues. Send tips to terri.wu@epochtimes.com.



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