Trump Amplifies Pressure on Iran by Targeting Its Vulnerabilities | World News
Leverage is crucial in negotiations, as Donald Trump noted in his book, The Art of the Deal. “Don’t engage in deals without it.”
The US president has now amplified his leverage over Iran’s government, applying pressure in sensitive areas.
Oil exports. This action is poised to inflict further damage on Iran’s struggling economy, which is already in dire straits, potentially resulting in increased social unrest.
The directive signed by Mr. Trump on Tuesday signifies a return to the severe pressure policies of his initial term, which were eased by his successors.
Joe Biden allowed Iran to annually export over $50 billion worth of oil.
Trump is changing the narrative. He plans to target foreign ports and refineries, particularly those in China that are currently processing Iranian oil.
Iran might soon face a scenario where it has nowhere left to sell its oil.
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This situation could be catastrophic for the ayatollahs and their administration. Strangled by harsh sanctions, the Iranian populace relies heavily on the foreign currency generated by oil exports.
However, the consequences extend beyond this. The global oil prices have already surged in response to this news.
This foreshadows further challenges for the government in Tehran. Rising fuel costs exacerbate the hardships faced by Iran’s poor population, raising the likelihood of social unrest.
Following the death of Mahsa Amini over two years ago, protests led by Iranian women were brutally suppressed but diminished the government’s credibility.
If the rural poor rise in protest against escalating fuel and food prices amid already crippling inflation, widespread unrest may become inevitable.
This predicament confines Iran’s government.
President Trump has expressed a desire for a deal with Iran. He acknowledges the country’s remarkable people and its vast potential.
But there’s a stipulation: Iran must not possess a nuclear weapon.
Iran maintains that its nuclear ambitions are peaceful; however, since Mr. Trump abandoned the initial nuclear agreement, it has been enriching uranium to levels unsuitable for civilian use.
The Iranian government faces a dilemma: enter negotiations with the US from a point of weakness or alter its nuclear policy and speed up its quest for a bomb.
The latter option carries significant risks. Israeli intelligence has successfully infiltrated and monitored Iran. It is highly probable that any covert effort to accelerate nuclear weapon development will be detected.
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Israel may subsequently launch an attack on Iran, and Mr. Trump has indicated that without an agreement, the US would likely support such actions.
Iran has never been more vulnerable. Throughout the past year, it has observed its network of allies and proxies suffer significant blowback from Israeli operations.
In recent confrontations, Israel is believed to have compromised a substantial portion of Iran’s air defense capabilities. However, Iran possesses other defensive strategies.
This includes attacks on neighboring countries across the Gulf and their fragile energy systems, once again raising the prospect of escalating conflict throughout the Middle East.
Iran’s diplomats are projecting a stance of defiance. An assault on its nuclear facilities would be “insane“, asserted its foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, to Sky News last month. He warned it would result in a “catastrophe” for the region.
Iran’s leadership finds itself in a precarious situation. Mr. Trump appears resolute in his intention to heighten their hardships, which he hopes might improve the odds of a negotiation on his terms.
Others are concerned that this approach could make a devastating regional conflict more probable. The consequences of a clash in the Persian Gulf would reverberate globally.