Trump Double Digits Stronger Than ’16 in Iowa, S.C.

Former President Donald Trump is stronger than ever in pivotal early 2024 GOP primary states Iowa (46%) and South Carolina (48%), trumping even his 2015/16 support by double digits, according to the latest Shaw & Company Research polls released Sunday.

Trump continues to enjoy a large lead over the GOP primary field, too, topping Iowa runner-up Ron DeSantis by 30 points and South Carolina runner-up Nikki Haley by 34 points. DeSantis is running third in South Carolina at 13%.

Trump did not win Iowa in 2016, but he did hold 34% and a 11-point lead by this pollster over 2016 Iowa caucus winner Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

In the latest Shaw & Company Research poll results in Iowa for the first choice in the Iowa caucus:

1. Trump 46%.
2. Florida Gov. DeSantis 16%.
3. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. 11%.
4. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy 6%.
5. Former South Carolina Gov. Haley 5%.
6. Former Vice President Mike Pence 4%.
7. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum 3%.
8. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 3%.
9. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson 1%.
10. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez 1%.

California conservative radio host Larry Elder, and former Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas, each drew less than 1% support, while GOP Iowa caucus-goers sided with “other” at 1%, and 3% were undecided.

Trump’s large lead in South Carolina – he was at 32% and a 13-point lead over Cruz in 2016 before winning all 50 delegates by 10 points – is even more surprising, considering it is the home state of also-rans Haley and Sen. Tim Scott. It might be the reason DeSantis ran third.

1. Trump 48%.
2. Haley 14%.
3. DeSantis 13%.
4. Scott 10%.
5. Pence 4%.
6. Ramaswamy 3%.
7. Christie 2%.
8. Hutchinson 1%.

Burgum, Elder, Hurd, Suarez, other, and none all drew less than 1% in South Carolina and 4% remain undecided.

South Carolina is a pivotal state early in the primary cycle, not only because it comes after Iowa and New Hampshire, but it is also a state that awards all 50 delegates to the winner, making the presence of Haley and Scott in the anti-Trump category tough on DeSantis’ hopes.

Iowa, long known as the first in the nation caucus, divides its delegates up.

Republican pollster Shaw & Company Research conducted both state-wide polls July 15-19 among 806 (Iowa) and 808 (South Carolina) likely GOP voters. The margins of error were plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for both polls.