Understanding the Demographic Changes That Contributed to Trump’s Victory

President-elect Donald Trump has garnered increased support from nearly all demographic groups, with Gen Z voters aged 18 to 29 proving to be especially significant.

Trump also nearly doubled his support among black voters, receiving 15 percent of their votes compared to 8 percent in 2020, and saw an improvement among Hispanic voters (41 percent versus 35 percent). While these groups represented only 3 percent and 8 percent of his total votes respectively, young voters made up 15 percent of his votes.

Despite Harris’s efforts to appeal to young voters, including granting an interview to the “Call Her Daddy” podcast, her approach failed to resonate strongly enough.

According to AP VoteCast, nearly two in five voters identified the economy as the nation’s most crucial issue, with slightly higher proportions in battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.

Economic concerns in this election cycle presented a different landscape compared to 2020, when voters were primarily preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic and its related restrictions.

This year, Trump emphasized the economic argument, proposing measures like eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and social security. While the last issue may not directly impact young voters, the first two could potentially resonate. A significant portion of tipped workers in the hospitality sector are under 30 years old.

He also pledged to lower consumer prices by boosting energy production.

Harris’s economic initiatives, such as outlawing grocery price inflation and offering $25,000 down payments for new home purchasers, did not seem to resonate enough. With the median home price exceeding $420,000 (up 24 percent since President Joe Biden’s inauguration) and the average mortgage rate at 6.7 percent (up from 2.7 percent), young people likely found themselves significantly short of affording their first home even with the $25,000 assistance.

Trump was perceived as more capable of managing the economy across age groups, holding a 4- to 9-point margin of superiority.

However, Trump’s support remained stagnant among college-educated voters, maintaining a 41 percent share of the vote both in this election and in 2020. He also experienced no progress among women over 45, receiving 47 percent of their votes. There was a slight increase in his support among suburban women, with 41 percent backing him compared to 40 percent in 2020.

Among women aged 18 to 44, Trump saw a 6-point rise from 37 percent in 2020 to 43 percent in this election. This trend may suggest that Harris’s emphasis on abortion access, a key pillar of her campaign, failed to sway voters adequately.

Only 11 percent of voters considered abortion the most critical issue facing the country.

Exit polls indicated that Trump’s commitment to leaving abortion decisions to individual states and refraining from backing national abortion restrictions generally worked in his favor. He gained ground among those supporting making abortion illegal in most instances, as well as those advocating for it to be legal in most cases, capturing 49 percent of their votes compared to 30 percent four years ago, according to the NEP Exit Poll by Edison Research.

Among advocates of legalizing abortion in all cases, his performance was 8 points lower than in 2020.

He prevailed among new voters, 56 percent of whom supported him, up from 32 percent four years ago.

In the lower middle class bracket earning $30,000 to $50,000 annually, he gained 10 points, while experiencing an 11-point drop among those making $100,000 to $200,000.

Trump’s most significant improvements among Hispanics were seen in the 18 to 29 age group, the 45 to 64 age group, and among men, where he gained 19 points over his 2020 performance. Among men, he secured a 55 percent majority.

Additionally, notable were the 11-point enhancements among fathers and veterans, where he garnered 60 percent and 65 percent of their votes, respectively.