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USDA Forecasts 1.9% Increase in Food Prices for 2025


In 2021, there was a 3.9 percent increase in prices, followed by a 9.9 percent rise in 2022 and a 5.8 percent increase in 2023.

Food prices have been on a consistent upward trend in recent years, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Food Price Outlook tracker forecasting that this growth will persist into 2025.

“In 2025, it is anticipated that prices for all food will rise by 1.9 percent,” stated the agency in a report released on Jan. 8. report.

Prices for food consumed at home and away from home are expected to increase by 0.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. While an overall rise in food prices is projected for this year, it is expected to be “at a slower pace than the historical average rate of growth.” In 2021, prices rose by 3.9 percent, in 2022 by 9.9 percent, and in 2023 by 5.8 percent.

The Food Price Outlook examines and predicts annual changes in food prices, considering projected and observed prices over the past two years.

For 2024, food prices are anticipated to have risen by 2.3 percent. The food category that experienced the highest price increase last year was eggs, which saw an estimated rise of 7.7 percent. This was followed by a 5.5 percent increase in beef and veal, a 2.5 percent rise in fats and oils, and a modest gain of 0.5 percent in cereals and bakery items.

In contrast, fish and seafood are expected to have undergone the most significant price decrease at 1.9 percent, with dairy products dropping by 0.3 percent.

Professors David Andolfatto and David Kelly from the University of Miami identified various factors influencing global food markets, including high oil prices, supply-and-demand challenges arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, and crop diseases, as highlighted in a university post dated Aug. 30, 2024. post.

Kelly, who specializes in economics, pointed to domestic elements contributing to this situation, such as increased energy costs, trucking regulations that prohibit cages for chickens, and extreme weather. Nevertheless, he noted, “the vast majority of high food prices are due to high inflation.”

“Inflation impacts food just like it affects every other product. Since 2019, overall prices have risen by 4.2 percent annually, while food prices have increased by 4.8 percent,” he stated.

He recommended considering measures to boost food supply and reduce regulations to mitigate food inflation. “For instance, reducing tariffs or promoting free trade agreements, particularly in agriculture, could be helpful, but those options are not well-received,” he observed.

In light of continuously rising prices, concerns are growing among citizens regarding the significant consumption of highly processed food by Americans.

Egg Prices

Egg prices have surged significantly in recent months. The average price for a dozen Grade A eggs in U.S. cities soared from $2.69 in May 2024 to $3.64 in November, marking an increase of over 35 percent, as reported by data from the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The USDA attributes the soaring egg prices to an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that began in 2022.

The outbreak “led to higher egg prices by diminishing the U.S. egg-layer flock,” they reported. “HPAI continued to influence egg price increases in 2024, with recent cases reported in December 2024. Egg prices in November 2024 were 37.5 percent higher compared to November 2023.”

Farm-level egg prices are also facing “large monthly fluctuations,” as noted by the agency. “In November 2024, farm-level egg prices were 94.4 percent higher than in November 2023, during which prices had notably decreased due to a decline in the outbreak during much of 2023.”

The USDA has regarded egg prices as “the most variable category” monitored by the agency.

According to a Jan. 9 post from the United Egg Producers association, 1,387 flocks have been impacted by the 2022 avian flu outbreak, affecting over 130 million birds across all 50 states.

This includes nearly 102 million egg-laying hens and pullets—young hens that have not yet started laying eggs.

“As the current HPAI outbreak enters its fourth year, the repercussions on the poultry industry continue to be significant,” the association remarked.



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