5 Important Lessons Learned from Canada’s Provincial Elections

October 29, 2024 TruthUSA

Three provincial elections in Canada this month resulted in a new majority Liberal government in New Brunswick, a fifth consecutive majority government for the Saskatchewan Party, and a narrow victory for the BC NDP.

Although these were the only fixed elections scheduled for this fall, there will be one more vote before the New Year. Nova Scotians will head to the polls next month after a snap election call this week by Conservative Premier Tim Houston.

Here are some key takeaways from the latest races and the one still to come.

Saskatchewan

The Saskatchewan election stands out as the sole contest in which the incumbent achieved a decisive victory on election night, marking a fifth straight victory for Scott Moe and his Saskatchewan Party. It’s a feat that has not been seen since 1960 when Tommy Douglas’ Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (now known as the NDP) won a fifth majority government.

While the Sask. Party will form a majority government thanks to its popularity in the rural ridings of the province; it does so with fewer seats in the legislature. Its majority was weakened by a revitalized NDP, which recorded its strongest electoral showing since 2007, winning in 26 ridings to nearly double its size in the legislature as the official Opposition.

The NDP secured seats in all but two urban ridings, achieving upset victories over several long-serving Sask. Party MLAs including Justice Minister and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre, Social Services Minister Gene Makowsky, Corrections, Policing and Public Safety Minister Paul Merriman, and Environment Minister Christine Tell.

Moe acknowledged during his victory speech Oct. 28 that his party lost support compared to the 2021 election and pledged that his government will work hard to earn back the trust of those who voted against the Sask. Party.

British Columbia

David Eby’s B.C. NDP finally emerged victorious in a historic provincial election in which the winner was decided by the counting of absentee and special ballots.

Elections BC released the final ballot count results Oct. 28, nine days after the Oct. 19 vote, saying the NDP had won at least 47 seats, the magic number needed to achieve a majority government. The Conservatives won in 44 ridings, while the BC Greens won two seats.

The key question that remains is whether the NDP will retain its majority government status pending judicial review of the Surrey-Guildford riding where incumbent Garry Begg defeated Conservative candidate Honveer Singh Randhawa by only 27 votes.

B.C. NDP Leader David Eby greets supporters as he and his wife Cailey Lynch leave after speaking on election night in Vancouver, on Oct. 19, 2024. (The Canadian Press/Darryl Dyck) — B.C. NDP Leader David Eby greets supporters as he and his wife Cailey Lynch leave after speaking on election night in Vancouver, on Oct. 19, 2024. The Canadian Press/Darryl Dyck

Ridings with a margin of less than 1/500th of the total ballots cast are automatically subject to a judicial recount. If the recount favours the Conservative candidate in Surrey-Guildford, the NDP will lose majority status and will drop to 46 seats in the legislature to the Conservative’s 45.

There will also be a judicial recount in the Kelowna Centre riding, where the Conservative candidate is currently leading with 38 votes.

Even if the recount does not result in another seat for the Conservatives, the party’s unprecedented rise in the legislature is all but unheard of.

As B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad pointed out in a social media statement, the party was at 2 percent in the polls just 18 months ago with “no members, no money, no team.”

Now it will form the official Opposition with only a few seats less than the governing NDP.

Eby acknowledged that his party’s victory was “close and hard-fought” in his own statement Oct. 28, saying that the NDP is “determined to listen and get to work on today’s tough challenges” like health care and affordability.

New Brunswick

The Oct. 21 New Brunswick election brought a dramatic turnaround, as the Progressive Conservative government was displaced by the Liberal Opposition, with Premier Blaine Higgs failing to secure his own seat. Longtime PC MLA Glen Savoie stepped in as interim leader after Higgs stepped down.

The Liberals were victorious in 31 ridings and will form a majority government under leader Susan Holt, who will become the province’s first female premier. The incumbent Progressive Conservatives took 16 ridings to become the official Opposition in the legislature and the Greens won two seats.

Holt’s campaign was mainly focused on health care and cost-of-living issues, while promising to maintain a balanced budget.

The election campaign also saw a clear divide between English and French voters, as francophones threw their support behind Holt’s Liberals.

Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston has called an election for Nov. 26, well ahead of the fixed July 15, 2025, election date. His Oct. 27 decision comes at a time when his Progressive Conservative party is well ahead in the polls, but could also be a bid to capitalize on the popularity of the federal Conservatives, which enjoy a 17-point lead over the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.

A summer poll of Nova Scotians found that Houston was far and away the preferred candidate for premier at 34 percent. A distant second was NDP Leader Claudia Chender at 16 percent followed by Liberal Leader Zach Churchill at 15 percent.

Nova Scotia party leaders (L-R) Liberal Zach Churchill, NDP Claudia Chender, and Progressive Conservative Tim Houston are shown in these recent photos. (The Canadian Press/Riley Smith) — Nova Scotia party leaders (L-R) Liberal Zach Churchill, NDP Claudia Chender, and Progressive Conservative Tim Houston are shown in these recent photos. The Canadian Press/Riley Smith

Houston’s decision also comes at a time when tensions are on the rise between the PCs and the Liberals after former Liberal caucus chair Fred Tilley crossed

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