After Assad, Turkey Prepares for a Series of Challenges in Syria: The Path to Damascus

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said that NATO member Turkey will hold the “key to Syria,” where the ruling regime collapsed last week in the face of a rebel offensive supported by Ankara.

Addressing reporters on Dec. 16, Trump also said that the rebel groups that captured Damascus—and most of the country—were “controlled by Turkey.”

“And that’s okay,” said Trump, who will return to the White House on Jan. 20, 2025, for his second presidential term.

Speaking to The Epoch Times, Omer Onhon, Ankara’s former ambassador to Damascus, partially agreed with Trump’s assessment, acknowledging that Turkey was now a “major actor in Syria.”

“But it’s a bit unfair to say Turkey holds ‘the key’ [to Syria],” said Onhon, who served as ambassador from 2009 to 2012, when Ankara severed diplomatic ties with the government of Syria’s then-president, Bashar al-Assad.

“That would imply that Turkey should assume responsibility for all that happens in Syria, both positive and negative,” he said. “And that cannot be the case.”

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But according to Onhon, such assessments of Turkey’s role in post-Assad Syria “should not be exaggerated.”

Rehabilitation of the war-torn country, with which Turkey shares a 566-mile-long border, will be an “international effort,” Onhon said.

‘Unfriendly Takeover’

Assad’s government abruptly collapsed on Dec. 8 after heavily armed rebel fighters overran Damascus, along with other key cities in northwestern Syria.

The lightning offensive originated in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, which for years was controlled by armed anti-Assad groups supported by Turkey.

The offensive was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an internationally designated terrorist group, which now reportedly controls most of Syria.

In his recent remarks, Trump said that Turkey, by supporting the rebels, “did an unfriendly takeover [of Syria] without a lot of lives being lost.”

Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s foreign minister, took issue with Trump’s remarks, calling it a “grave mistake” to characterize events in Syria as a takeover by Turkey.

“If there is any takeover, it’s [by] the will of the Syrian people.”

He rejected claims that Turkey sought domination in Syria.

Speaking earlier this week, Fidan also sought to downplay Ankara’s role in coordinating the rebel offensive that ultimately toppled Assad.

Nevertheless, according to Onhon, the offensive—which captured Damascus in less than two weeks—was most likely prepared well in advance.

“That kind of operation doesn’t happen overnight,” he said.

“If you look at the [military] formations, the uniforms, the discipline—they were obviously training and preparing for something.”

Onhon further asserted that “all major actors in the region”—he did not say which ones—had played “some part” in the operation.

“But in what way exactly, of course, I don’t know,” he said.

HTS in Control

On Dec. 10, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Mohammed al-Golani) appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to lead Syria’s caretaker government until March 1, 2025.

A self-styled “technocrat,” al-Bashir led an HTS-backed Syrian government-in-exile in Idlib in the years leading up to Assad’s abrupt departure.

Previously called the Nusra Front, HTS is an ideological offshoot of al-Qaeda.

This has raised fears that the group may try to impose its arch-conservative worldview on Syria, which has long been known for its ethnic and religious diversity.

“Syria is a multiethnic, multi-religious country,” Onhon said.

“If a particular group—Salafists or jihadists—tries to impose its ideology on the rest of the population, this would negate the reason for Assad’s ouster.

“You would basically get rid of one autocratic system and replace it with another one.”

In a Dec. 18 statement, Pedersen also called for an “inclusive” political transition to include “the broadest range of Syrian society and Syrian parties.”

HTS, for its part, has sought to reassure critics, distancing itself from its earlier ties with extremist groups.

In remarks to the Italian press last week, al-Bashir, the new caretaker prime minister, pledged to ensure the rights of “all people and sects” in Syria.

“HTS is trying to give a moderate impression,” Onhon said.

“Words are nice. But whether they mean what they say will depend on their actions.”

Onhon also warned against possible reprisals against the minority Alawite population by the country’s new HTS-backed leadership.

Syria’s Alawite community, from which the long-ruling Assad family hailed, is said to account for roughly 10 percent of the country’s total population.

“Alawites should not be punished or marginalized because of their sectarian identity,” Onhon said.

“Otherwise, we’ll see another insurgency—this time by the Alawites.”

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