Although Excess Mortality Levels in Australia are 5 Percent Above Average, they are Currently Falling
Rates of excess mortality in Australia remain elevated compared to normal levels, starting in 2021. However, the rate in 2023 is half of what it was in 2022.
The most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates that excess mortality in Australia continues to be significantly higher than expected, even though there has been a considerable decrease in 2023 compared to the previous year.
In 2022, there were 5.1% more deaths than expected, while in 2021, the figure was 11.7%.
There are notable differences among various states and territories.
With numbers of excess deaths at -1.0% and 1.3% respectively, the Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory have the lowest figures by far.
In contrast, Tasmania went from being in line with the national average to nearly doubling it, with excess mortality rising slightly to 10.1% last year—the only jurisdiction to see an increase.
Excess Mortality Figures Per Jurisdiction, 2020-23
| Source: ABS | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | -3.1 | 1.6 | 11.7 | 5.1 |
Some periods of the year showed higher spikes in excess mortality rates than others.
Deaths were notably lower than expected from the beginning of June to mid-July 2020, typically during the winter months.
The ABS explains that the decreases in excess mortality offer insights into how public health measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic impacted mortality.
Australia has experienced excess mortality in previous years, including 2014, 2015, and 2017. This trend typically occurred during winter months and was associated with severe influenza seasons.
