Analysis: Canada’s Asylum Claims Set to Reach Record Numbers in 2021—Discover the Reasons Behind this Trend

August 22, 2024 TruthUSA

The closure of the informal border crossing at Roxham Road last year reduced the influx of asylum-seekers into Quebec from New York state. However, overall numbers are increasing in Canada, particularly among those arriving by air. Various factors are driving this rise, beyond just the expanding global conflict landscape, according to immigration experts interviewed by The Epoch Times.

One significant factor is likely the surge in travel visa approvals.

Montreal immigration lawyer Stéphanie Valois informed The Epoch Times that the government has accelerated its visa processing to address a backlog from the pandemic. Many individuals who enter on travel visas then go on to seek asylum.

In recent years, fewer travel visa applicants have been required to demonstrate their intention to return home, noted lawyer and York University international relations professor Michael Barutciski. This shift is also contributing to the rise in air arrivals.

From January to June of this year, Canada processed over 92,000 asylum claimants, a significant increase from the approximately 57,000 claimants during the same period the previous year.

Contrastingly, between 2011 and 2016, Canada received between 10,000 and 25,000 claimants annually. The numbers started to climb after that, and Canada’s per-capita intake of asylum-seekers is now comparable to Germany, the European Union’s largest host country, as per Barutciski’s analysis of EU data in a paper published by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in July.

Approximately 28,000 claimants arrived by air in the first half of this year, compared to around 8,000 arriving by land. This marks a shift from the long-standing trend where land arrivals were predominant, even before Roxham Road emerged as a popular crossing point.

The total number of asylum claimants processed by Canada Border Services Agency and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada during the first six months of 2017–2024. For 2011– 2016, only annual data is available, so we cut the annual total in half to give a rough estimate for comparison. (The Epoch Times) — The total number of asylum claimants processed by Canada Border Services Agency and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada during the first six months of 2017–2024. For 2011– 2016, only annual data is available, so we cut the annual total in half to give a rough estimate for comparison. The Epoch Times

From Land to Air

Roxham Road, an unofficial crossing between New York and Quebec, was utilized by over 100,000 migrants since 2017. Its usage declined after Canada and the U.S. amended their Safe Third Country agreement in March 2023.

The agreement stipulates that asylum-seekers must file their claims in the first country they enter. Previously, this requirement only applied to official border crossings, creating a loophole. However, now it applies anywhere along the border, resulting in asylum-seekers being sent back to the U.S. to make their claims.

The federal government imposed stricter restrictions on Mexican migrants in February 2024, necessitating travel visas for Mexicans.

“This measure is in response to the rising number of unsuccessful, withdrawn, or abandoned asylum claims by Mexican citizens,” stated the government in its announcement. “It is a key step to maintain the movement of hundreds of thousands of Mexican citizens while ensuring the effective management of our immigration and asylum systems.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, following a meeting with Quebec’s premier in June, committed to “enhancing the visa system.” However, the details were not elaborated on and were not a significant part of the conversation.

The Epoch Times reached out to Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada for updates or specific plans but did not receive a response at the time of publication.

“It’s almost impossible to determine the intentions of visa applicants upon their arrival in Canada,” said immigration lawyer Valois. She added that some may have plans to seek asylum, while others may decide to make a claim due to changing circumstances in their home countries, such as the outbreak of war.

Similarly, Valois noted that international students also file asylum claims. Minister Miller has expressed concerns about the uptick in international student claims.

The number of asylum claims from Seneca College students rose from about 300 in 2022 to nearly 700 in 2023, and from Conestoga College students increased from 106 to 450 in the same period.

These increases are deemed “alarming” and “unacceptable” by Minister Miller.

As the modes of entry for asylum claims shift, so do the top countries of origin and destinations within Canada.

Countries of Origin, Destination

The highest number of claimants from India has arrived so far this year. Data on the country of origin from the IRB is available for January through March, showing around 6,000 claimants from India. Following closely are claimants from Mexico (approximately 5,800), Nigeria (5,061), and Bangladesh (3,016).

Given the limited data covering only three months, it is challenging to forecast the annual total compared to 2023. If the number of Mexican applicants remains consistent, Canada may observe figures similar to the previous year.

However, there seems to be a decline in Haitian and Colombian claimants, which were among the highest in 2022 and 2023. These groups typically used Roxham Road for entry.

The new claimants arriving now originate from countries that vary from the primary source countries for worldwide refugee claims, Barutciski noted, referencing data he reviewed from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Barutciski pointed out that Canada’s increase does not align with global trends, suggesting it might be due to a perception that Canada has more lenient asylum policies, attracting claimants who believe they have a higher chance of success compared to elsewhere.

Asylum-seekers specifically refer to individuals who enter the country without prior refugee status approval. For instance, despite receiving numerous Ukrainian refugees, Ukraine does not rank as a top source of asylum-seekers.

Ontario has been the primary destination for most claimants so far this year, whereas Quebec had been the epicenter of the asylum issue in past years.

Except for 2020 and 2021, Quebec typically received more claimants than Ontario each year since 2016. Ontario’s numbers slightly surpassed Quebec’s in those years by roughly 700 individuals in 2020 and 1,600 in 2021.

In the first half of this year, Ontario welcomed approximately 48,000 claimants while Quebec received 33,000. British Columbia and Alberta followed as the next highest recipients, with around 5,200 and 4,500 claimants, respectively.

The distribution of claimants and federal funding for their settlement has been a significant topic of discussion.

Quebec received a commitment of $750 million in federal funds in June, prompting B.C. Premier David Eby to advocate for other provinces needing assistance as well. Minister Miller responded in June that British Columbia must accept more asylum-seekers if they desire increased funding.

Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador have expressed willingness to receive some of Quebec’s asylum-seekers. Quebec has requested a federal quota system to relocate asylum-seekers to other provinces.

In May, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) estimated the federal costs associated with each asylum claimant from a visa-exempt country.

The PBO reported that the average cost per claimant in 2024 was $16,500.

Asylum-seekers are eligible for a work permit, which takes approximately six to eight weeks to be processed, according to the Quebec government.

The asylum claims themselves may take years to resolve. The Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada states that the current wait time is around two years for a refugee claim and one year for an appeal. As of March 31 this year, the backlog of cases exceeded 186,000, a stark increase from about 10,000 in 2015.

The approval rate of claims is on the rise. Data for 2024

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