Analysis: The Potential Reasons behind Doug Ford’s Decision to Call an Early Election in Ontario

Three provinces are preparing for elections this year, and amidst a flurry of media inquiries, Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced that his province will not be part of the electoral process.

Although an election in 2025 has not been completely ruled out, it could happen sooner than the scheduled date of June 4, 2026.

But the question remains: why would a government re-elected with a second majority in 2022, allowing them to remain in power comfortably until 2026, consider going to the polls early?

While only the Progressive Conservatives hold the answer to that, many observers speculate that it may be related to provincial-federal interactions.

According to Greg Loerts, a consultant with Bluesky Strategy Group, there is talk of a potential ‘carbon tax election’ that Doug Ford could call. If it resonates positively in the media, he could ride the Poilievre wave federally for another majority victory.

The PCs are not the only party in Ontario aligning their narrative with federal developments.

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Following the upset in the June 24 byelection for the Liberals in Toronto–St. Paul’s, Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie distanced herself from her federal colleagues, suggesting that the PCs are more aligned with the federal Liberals.

She stated in an exclusive interview with Global News, “I think Doug Ford is a closer friend to Justin Trudeau. I probably speak to the prime minister less than once a year.”

Provincial parties in other provinces are also influenced by the performance of their federal counterparts.

The pollster mentioned in April that “more than half (56%) of likely federal Conservative voters currently support the provincial Conservatives.”

John Shields, a professor of politics and public administration at Toronto Metropolitan University, suggests that the PCs might rush to the polls before a federal election if a Conservative government implements budget cuts that are unpopular with Ontarians.

He explained, “That government is very likely to be interested in cutting down on a lot of programs, potentially impacting the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario.”

Mr. Shields also highlighted Ontario’s tendency to elect the opposite party of the federal government, describing it as a balancing act that Ontarians engage in.

Mr. Shields also warned of the risks associated with an early election, citing the example of former Ontario Premier David Peterson, who called for an early election in 1990 only to face a backlash from voters.

He said, “Polls are fickle. They can turn pretty quickly, and people are pretty skeptical about governments.”

If the Ontario PCs do decide to call an early election, it will likely be in early 2025 if the polls continue to show favorable outcomes.

Similarly, Mr. Loerts pointed out the potential drawbacks of an early election, especially given that Mr. Ford’s majority government is secure until 2026.

He mentioned the failed attempt by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to secure a majority government by calling an early election in 2021, which faced criticism from Canadians for holding an election during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“If Ontarians are unhappy about being thrust into an election, they may return Mr. Ford with a minority,” Mr. Loerts concluded.