Auditors predict that plans to increase prison capacity will be delayed and exceed budget by £4 billion.

December 4, 2024 TruthUSA

The NAO mentioned that the current plans are inadequate to meet future demand as there is an expected shortfall of 12,400 prison spaces by the end of 2027.

The National Audit Office (NAO) stated that the previous government’s plans to increase prison capacity will take five years longer than initially planned and cost at least £4.2 billion more than the estimated expenses.

According to the government spending watchdog, the commitment made in 2021 to provide 20,000 new prison spaces by 2027 will not be achieved until 2031.

The projected expenses for the plans range between £9.4 billion and £10.1 billion, exceeding the 2021 estimates by at least £4.2 billion due to factors like inflation affecting construction costs.

By September, only one-third (6,518) of the 20,000 new prison spaces have been made available. The NAO also highlighted that the current plans are deemed insufficient to address future demand, resulting in a projected shortage of 12,400 prison spaces by the end of 2027.

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) intend to expand capacity by constructing new prisons, temporary wings, and refurbishing existing cell blocks.

‘Unrealistic Timelines’

The NAO identified several reasons for the delays in the expansion plans, including overestimation of obtaining planning permission for three of the six proposed new prisons, lack of coordination among government bodies, and setting “unrealistic timelines.”

The watchdog concluded that the current prison capacity crisis is a result of past governments failing to align criminal justice policies with funding for the prison estate, leading to reactive and costly solutions.

The NAO also highlighted, “Policies such as introducing tougher sentences and increasing the number of police officers led to steep increases in expected demand for prison places. However, years of under-investment in maintaining the prison estate put MoJ and HMPPS in a weak position to respond to these increases.”

Gareth Davies, the head of the NAO, stated, “The Government must learn lessons from the current prison capacity crisis to ensure the long-term resilience and cost-effectiveness of the prison estate.”

Early Release

The report mentioned that the government primarily focused on short-term solutions to address the capacity crisis, including transferring inmates to open-air prisons and releasing prisoners early when other options were exhausted.

As of October 2024, there were 85,900 individuals in prison in England and Wales, marking a 3% decrease since September 2024 due to the early release of at least 3,100 inmates.

In July, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced plans to temporarily reduce the minimum time convicts must spend behind bars from 50% to 40% to alleviate pressure on prison capacity.

The watchdog also noted concerns from both the MoJ and HMPPS that the government’s early release scheme “could impact the effective rehabilitation of prisoners, potentially leading to higher reoffending rates and greater safety risks for the public.”

Chief Inspector of Prisons Charlie Taylor had already anticipated this issue and stated in September that “it’s inevitable that some of these prisoners will get recalled to custody and it’s inevitable that some of them will go out homeless.”

Condition of the Prison Estate

The report also highlighted the continued risk to maintaining prison capacity in the coming years due to the poor condition of parts of the estate.

It was found that HMPPS’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled from £900 million to £1.8 billion in four years. The prison service estimates that it would require £2.8 billion over the next five years to bring the entire estate to a “fair” condition, which the NAO noted is “more than double its current maintenance expenditure.”

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Earlier this year, Rochester Prison became the first Category C facility to receive an urgent notification following a decade of failure in preparing inmates for community life, with less than a third engaged in work or training.

Inspectors also described the prison conditions as “squalid,” with “decrepit buildings and infestations of rats and mice plaguing older structures.”

Prisons Minister Lord James Timpson stated that the NAO’s report “exposes the failures that brought our prison system to the edge, risking public safety and adding billions in extra costs to taxpayers.”

Timpson emphasized that the government has taken immediate steps to address overcrowding and will focus on long-term improvement, including the upcoming publication of a 10-year prison capacity strategy to ensure sustainable jails.

PA Media contributed to this report.

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