Australia Prepares for Hot Summer Despite La Niña Predictions
Australia is currently under La Niña watch, but weather models suggest that the cooler, wetter conditions could shift back to neutral.
While some La Niña-like conditions have brought cooler temperatures to certain parts of Australia this spring, it is likely that much of the country will experience typical summer weather conditions.
There is speculation that Australia may experience La Niña conditions for the remainder of the year, but the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that the modeling hints at more typical weather conditions.
The cooler spell observed from Sept. 13 to 19 was a result of strong south-to-south-easterly winds carrying a cold air mass from the south, along with clear night skies over much of southern Queensland.
Cooler patches in September are not considered highly unusual for Australia.
However, predictions related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggest that Australia could experience either a cooler, wetter warm season or typical summer conditions.
ENSO is a global climate phenomenon arising from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The weather bureau’s outlook scale includes seven categories, with La Niña and El Niño at opposite ends.
Currently, La Niña is classified as “watch,” one level above “alert” and two levels above a confirmed La Niña system. The current outlook remains one step away from “neutral.”
According to a Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson, while some atmospheric indicators have reflected La Niña-like patterns in recent weeks, it is uncertain if these conditions will persist. The bureau’s model suggests that sea surface temperatures are likely to continue cooling but remain at ENSO-neutral levels.
Climate factors such as the ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode serve as broad indicators of the expected climate, among many other factors in a complex system.
Long-range forecasts offer better guidance on anticipated rainfall and temperature patterns in the next three months.
The most recent long-range analysis from Sept. 19 indicates above-average rainfall is probable across much of Australia’s eastern two-thirds, with Western Tasmania expected to see drier conditions. Most of Western Australia, the eastern Northern Territory, western Queensland, and southern Victoria are likely to experience rainfall within the typical seasonal range.
Warmer than average temperatures are forecasted for most of Australia.
