Canada Successfully Avoids Trump Tariffs, Temporarily

News Analysis

Canadian cabinet ministers had repeated in recent months that the tariff threat from U.S. President Donald Trump had to be taken seriously, but somehow their efforts to mount a response addressing his border concerns fell short.

It now appears all the initiative needed was a few tweaks, amid a context of intense trade war fears.

Ottawa’s initial $1.3 billion plan to bolster border security, presented in mid-December, seemingly didn’t resonate with Trump. It includes the leasing of two Blackhawk helicopters to patrol the boundary, and the deployment of other new surveillance assets and detector dog teams.

After saying in November that 25 percent tariffs would be imposed on Canada and Mexico if they didn’t stop illegal migration and drug smuggling into the United States through their borders, Trump followed through on Feb. 1 with an executive order.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced immediately afterward that Canada would impose $155 billion in retaliatory tariffs. “Our border is already safe and secure, but there’s always, always more work to do,” Trudeau said on Feb. 1. He said the plan is already showing results, “because we too are devastated by the scourge that is fentanyl … As neighbours, we must work collaboratively to fix this.”

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But then came the morning of Feb. 3, with Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announcing they
agreed
Mexico would send 10,000 soldiers to the U.S. border to stem the flow of illegal drugs and migrants. Sheinbaum
added
the U.S. has agreed to help mitigate “high-powered” weapons from entering Mexico.

This agreement putting a hold on tariffs for 30 days, while the two countries negotiate, suggested Trump was still open to strike a deal with Canada.

This materialized in the afternoon of Feb. 3, after a second call during the day between Trump and Trudeau.

The two leaders announced U.S. tariffs would be delayed for 30 days and Trudeau
announced
new elements to the border plan. Those include committing to appointing a “Fentanyl Czar,” designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations, and signing a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl backed by a $200 million envelope.

Trump had also directed his officials to start designating cartels as terrorists with one of his first
executive orders.

Trudeau also said there “are and will be” nearly 10,000 personnel working on protecting the border.

Security Concessions

Obtaining concessions on security with a first round of tariffs has been the stated objective of the Trump administration.

In reaction to Trump announcing the deal with Mexico, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said “a lot of the far left” in recent days had argued Mexico would not heed Trump’s demands on border security. “Well, how do you like them apples?” Vance wrote in a social media
post.

Trump’s pick for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, had
raised
this issue as well during his Senate confirmation hearing last week. Lutnick said if Canada acts “swiftly” on the border it can avoid tariffs.

While Trudeau has assured that the border is secure, especially when comparing it to the Mexican one, Trump has been pushing back.

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