Challenges and Opportunities for Trudeau amid Mounting Internal and External Pressures

December 20, 2024 TruthUSA

News Analysis

Pressure is mounting from all sides for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who faces a divided caucus, an NDP joining other opposition parties to vote no confidence, and the incoming president of the world’s superpower promising economy-crushing tariffs while dubbing him the “governor” of a 51st U.S. state.

Where can the prime minister take it from here?

Trudeau has had to make decisions about his political future a number of times in recent months, following repeated setbacks in byelections and the ensuing mini-caucus revolt in October, and declining numbers in the polls. Each time he chose to stay on, saying he is better placed to lead the Liberal Party in the next election even though he faces very challenging odds, counting on his past campaign successes.

But things escalated quickly this week.

The last days before the House of Commons holiday break were eventful to say the least. The cascade of events started when Trudeau apparently miscalculated by telling his finance minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 13 she would lose her post after delivering the Fall Economic Statement on Dec. 16.

Freeland instead pulled the pin before delivering the mini-budget. She made her resignation letter to Trudeau public for maximum damage, accusing him of using unspecified “costly political gimmicks” when the country should be making responsible decisions with budget and prepare for a trade war.

Cracks had already appeared in caucus prior to that, and started showing in cabinet afterwards. Justice Minister Arif Virani did not directly say he supports Trudeau when asked repeatedly where he stands on the prime minister’s leadership when speaking to reporters on Dec. 19.

Liberal MPs have also started to call more openly for Trudeau’s resignation, although the number who have been willing to speak publicly so far is below the 23 who signed an internal letter in October asking him to leave.

By all accounts there are still a sizeable number of MPs who support Trudeau, and no cabinet member other than Virani has shown signs of not being fully supportive.

What changed the equation significantly for Trudeau and the Liberal caucus is NDP MP Jagmeet Singh’s Dec. 20 statement that he will put forward a “clear motion of non-confidence” after the House of Commons reconvenes in late January. The New Democrats had been the only opposition party keeping the Liberals in power, offering their support on confidence votes.

Singh had said Trudeau should resign this week, and NDP House Leader Peter Julian had signalled the party could pull its support for the government, but didn’t go that far. With the Bloc Québécois pledging to bring down the government earlier this fall when it didn’t support two of its bills, there’s no one left to support the minority Liberals.

The odds of a spring election have now increased, which moves up the timelines for the Liberals who want to go to the polls with a different leader.

If Trudeau cedes to pressure and resigns, an interim leader will be named as the party organizes a leadership race. This exercise, which usually takes many months, would have to be compressed into a shorter time frame to be ready for the election.

Meanwhile, the messaging from Trudeau’s supporters is that Canada needs stability as Donald Trump will accede to the White House on Jan. 20.

“I would ask that at this time, this very critical juncture, that we all push in the same direction,” newly appointed Veterans Affairs Minister Darren Fisher said after the cabinet shuffle at Rideau Hall on Dec. 20.

The work facing the government is also how newly promoted Minister of Democratic Institutions Ruby Sahota explained was the reason for Trudeau not speaking to reporters after the shuffle. The prime minister hasn’t held a press conference since Freeland’s resignation and has also cancelled all his traditional year-end interviews with media outlets, only talking briefly to reporters as he was walking out of a Dec. 20 cabinet meeting, saying he’s focused on the issue of U.S. tariffs.

“The prime minister is working hard to make sure that we lead this government and we deal with the pressing issues of today,” Sahota told reporters at Rideau Hall on Dec. 20.

An option Trudeau has if he chooses to stay on and wants to avoid a spring election would be to ask the Governor General to prorogue Parliament. Such a move at a time when his all-round popularity is not strong would likely result in backlash and not improve his electoral odds.

Trudeau previously used the tool in 2020 at the time of the WE Charity scandal. Stephen Harper also prorogued Parliament twice.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre is pushing to have a non-confidence vote immediately and is putting pressure on Singh to follow through with his non-confidence motion instead of waiting for the next House sitting in late January.

Poilievre wrote a letter to Governor General Mary Simon on Dec. 20 asking her to recall Parliament before year-end to hold a confidence vote given “all three recognized parties … have now stated unequivocally that they have lost confidence in the Prime Minister.” He called on the NDP and Bloc Québécois leaders to do the same.

Poilievre’s request likely falls outside the powers of the Governor General, who cannot establish the House of Commons agenda or recall MPs.

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