Chances of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Colliding with Earth in 2032 Now Eliminated
Following two months of meticulous observations, researchers from the United States and Europe have downgraded the danger level of a newly identified asteroid that previously posed a significant threat of colliding with Earth.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was spotted on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in northern Chile. Orbiting our solar system in a four-year cycle, the asteroid was estimated to be approximately 130 to 300 feet in diameter.
Early warning systems swiftly noted that the object had a small, yet alarming, possibility of hitting Earth during its expected fly-by in 2032.
On February 18, ESA’s calculations estimated the likelihood of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, to be as high as 2.8 percent.
With these odds, 2024 YR4 was at the top of the world’s asteroid risk assessments.
“However, the very next day, observations made using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope halved the impact probability,” ESA disclosed.
This image made available by the University of Hawaii’s asteroid impact alert system, shows an arrow where asteroid 2024 YR4 would be, Dec. 27, 2024.ATLAS/University of Hawaii/NASA via AP
Further observations led to more detailed information, causing the odds to decrease even more.
Experts at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have been able to create more precise models of the asteroid’s path and have now adjusted its impact likelihood to just 0.004 percent.
“There is minimal potential for this asteroid to collide with our planet in the next century,” NASA affirmed.
ESA’s Planetary Defence Office has further lowered the chance of an impact to 0.001 percent.
“Asteroid 2024 YR4 has descended from Level 3 to Level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale and no longer necessitates significant attention,” ESA stated.
The agency indicated that it is common for initial impact probabilities to be overestimated, as additional data consistently refines the exact trajectory of the object.
“The rise and fall of the impact risk associated with this object follows a well-established pattern,” ESA concluded.
On the other hand, the more detailed observations have raised the possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the moon in 2032. According to NASA, that probability presently stands at 1.7 percent.
The James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe the asteroid in March to determine its size more accurately. The asteroid will not enter the range of deep space radar until 2032, as per IAWN.
This article has insights from The Associated Press.
