Comparing the Number of MPs Not Running for Re-Election to Previous Years: An Analysis
Before each federal election, like clockwork, a number of MPs across parties announce they are not seeking re-election for various reasons. The recent trend is quite revealing.
In the previous two elections, a notable number of MPs, 59 in 2019 and 34 in 2021, did not seek re-election by the time the writ was dropped. In 2019, out of these, 24 were from the governing Liberals, 21 Conservatives, and 14 NDP. In 2021, 19 were Liberals, nine Conservatives, and the rest were NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Independent.
This time around, over a year ahead of the next election, 31 MPs have already resigned or decided not to run again. Among them are 21 Liberals, a number close to or higher than previous election years. Seamus O’Regan, a prominent Liberal MP, recently stated he won’t be seeking re-election and even resigned from his cabinet position as labour minister.
The upcoming election is not expected until October 2025 due to the Liberals’ agreement with the NDP. More MPs are likely to announce their retirement closer to the election day.
Notable in this trend is the parallel with the 2015 election, where the Liberals gained a majority under Justin Trudeau, and numerous MPs chose not to run again or quit for various reasons.
According to Julie Simmons, an associate professor of political science, a high number of Liberal MPs opting out this time may be influenced by polling indicating the Liberals trailing the Conservatives significantly.
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She further mentioned that some MPs may be leaving for personal reasons while being concerned about their party’s popularity and re-election chances. This scenario is similar to what happened in the 1993 election post the Conservative era.
Looking back, the 2015 election similarly had a significant number of resignations and non-re-elections, indicating a possible correlation between MPs’ decisions and their party’s performance in the polls.
MPs leaving their positions have cited various reasons, from wanting to spend more time with family to feeling disillusioned with the current political environment. Some have mentioned concerns about the tone of politics and lack of respectful dialogue, driving them to step down.
It’s expected that more MPs will announce their plans closer to the election day, reflecting both personal and political considerations in their decision-making process.
