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Data on Economic Impact of Carbon Pricing in Ottawa Revealed


Ottawa has released its estimate of the carbon tax’s impact on the Canadian economy following Conservative allegations the government had
prevented the Parliamentary Budget Officer from speaking on the data.

The federal modelling data shows the country’s GDP is expected to be about $25 billion lower in 2030 due to carbon pricing than it would be otherwise, or 0.9 per cent below what it is estimated to be without carbon pricing.

The data was created in May by Environment Canada for the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) and models GDP and emissions based on raw economic and climate data.

The data also said that Canada’s emissions would be roughly 11 percent higher by 2030 without carbon pricing and that 80 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions will be eliminated by carbon pricing by that time.

The estimates were released as the Conservative Party plans to introduce a motion in the House of Commons calling for Ottawa to release its “full data” on the carbon tax’s economic impact. The Tories have accused the Liberal government of withholding the analysis, alleging it would prove Canadians are worse off under the carbon tax.

The Tories’ allegation came about after PBO Yves Giroux told the House of Commons Finance Committee on June 3 that the Liberal government was withholding its economic impacts of the carbon tax.

“We’ve seen that [report], staff in my office, but we’ve been told explicitly not to disclose it and reference it,” he said.

The week before, the PBO had been criticized by the Liberals for an error the office made when analyzing carbon pricing. Instead of only using consumer carbon pricing, the PBO had also included the output-based pricing system (OBPS) applicable to the industrial price for large emitters. Ottawa said this had skewed the results and overestimated the impacts of the carbon tax on households.

Mr. Giroux told The Epoch Times in a previous interview that while his office was coming up with a revised analysis of the carbon tax’s impact, leaving out the OBPS would not change the overall conclusion that Canadians are worse off economically under the tax. He said this is because the costs for industrial emitters are “not that high” compared to the costs for ordinary Canadians.

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The Conservative Party released a statement in response to the estimates, accusing the Liberals of “hiding” the fact that the carbon tax would cost each Canadian family $1,824 in extra costs per year.

“Never has it been more clear that the carbon tax is making Canadians worse off. But still, the Trudeau Government has only revealed a small portion of the information,” the statement said.

The Party said it would move ahead with its motion calling for the Liberal government to release its “full data on how the carbon tax hurts Canadians.”

The federal carbon tax has become a politically charged issue in Canada, with the Tories vowing to “axe the tax” if they form a government. The Tories have argued that the carbon tax has contributed to increases in the cost of food, fuel, and home heating at a time when Canadians are struggling with the cost of living.

The Liberal government has countered that federal carbon pricing is the most efficient way to reduce carbon emissions, and that eight out of 10 Canadians receive more back in carbon rebates than they pay through the tax.

The carbon tax has proven to be unpopular among a majority of Canadians, with an April survey finding that 69 percent of respondents do not support the plan to increase carbon pricing. The carbon tax is set to increase by $15 per tonne every year until it reaches $170 per tonne in 2030.



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