Demographer Warns That Population Decline Is the Most Urgent Crisis for Humanity
Stephen J. Shaw raised a grave concern about the consequences of ignoring declining birthrates, warning that it could lead to intergenerational strife, shrinking communities, and even societal collapse.
Describing population decline as “the most serious crisis facing humanity,” a data scientist and demographer highlighted the potential outcomes of shrinking communities, intergenerational conflicts, and societal collapse.
Shaw, known for his documentary “Birthgap,” explained that while facing numerous crises, population decline stands out as the most severe due to historical evidence indicating that civilizations have not recovered from such a decline.
He pointed to the example of the Roman Empire, which implemented policies to boost birthrates in its later years, but still experienced a gradual decline and eventual collapse. Shaw drew parallels between this history and the current global situation, emphasizing that fading away due to population decline is a growing reality.
Official statistics show a decline in the total fertility rate in England and Wales, with the rate decreasing steadily since 2010.
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He highlighted the declining birthrates in countries like Italy and Japan and pointed out that since 1980, the average woman in sub-Saharan Africa has been having one less child every 15 years.
Shaw delved into the reasons behind falling birthrates, questioning the conventional understanding of total fertility rates by demographers. He noted a significant increase in childlessness, mostly unintentional, attributed to delayed parenthood, contributing to a trend of people in various countries remaining childless for life.
Motherhood has proven to be resilient once women become mothers, with figures showing stable family sizes even amidst societal and economic shifts impacting women’s lives over the past five decades.
Shaw also identified “baby shocks” triggered by global economic events as a contributing factor to declining birthrates, highlighting the significance of these shocks on couples’ decision to postpone having children.
He criticized the persistence of Malthusian demographic theories that propagate fears of resource depletion due to unchecked population growth, emphasizing how these theories continue to influence public perception.
In addressing the population crisis, Shaw urged for a shift in focus from anti-natalist sentiments towards proactive measures that support parenthood, like the example set by Hungary with family-friendly policies aimed at reversing population decline.
Reflecting on the potential consequences of population decline, Shaw highlighted the intergenerational tensions that could arise, especially as older generations rely on increasingly scarce resources while younger generations face a future of caregiving responsibilities with diminishing support.
He emphasized the need for global awareness on this critical issue and the urgency for nations to adapt policies that promote healthy birthrates for a sustainable future.
Mr. Shaw’s insights shed light on the complexities and challenges posed by declining birthrates, prompting a call for action to prevent further deterioration that could have lasting societal impacts.
