Examining upcoming by-elections in the context of the recent upset in Toronto-St. Paul’s
Following a surprising byelection loss in a Toronto stronghold, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will soon need to call a new contest in a typically safe Liberal riding.
A similar situation is unfolding in the Toronto–St. Paul’s riding, which the Liberals have held since 1993. The Tories secured victory by 590 votes in the June 24 byelection, triggered by the departure of former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett.
Like Ms. Bennett, Mr. Lametti was removed from the cabinet during the July 2023 shuffle.
The LaSalle–Émard–Verdun riding was established in 2015, coinciding with Mr. Lametti’s initial election. It was formed by merging parts of two ridings with different historical electoral patterns.
LaSalle–Émard had been a long-standing Liberal stronghold and was once represented by former Prime Minister Paul Martin. It turned NDP in 2011 during a national electoral wave. On the other hand, Jeanne–Le Ber’s affiliation shifted among the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Québécois over the years.
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One thing that is almost certain is that the Conservatives will not take LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, which could be a small consolation prize for the Liberals. Their best result in the riding over the past three elections was 7.5 percent in 2021.What could help the Liberals is a divided opposition. In 2021, the Bloc (22.1 percent) and NDP (19.4 percent) vied for second spot, while the Liberals won with 42.9 percent.
While this byelection is unlikely to produce a Toronto–St. Paul’s-level upset for the Conservatives, it will still be key to gauging the Liberals’ strength in Quebec and its hold over Montreal. The party has all but two ridings on the island, with the north shore of Laval being completely red.
Meanwhile, the NDP, which has had good fortune in the area previously, will be closely looking to see if they can fare better than in the Toronto byelection, where they had their worst result (10.9 percent) over the past three elections (16.8 percent in 2021).
Voters could see the NDP, having forged a deal to keep the minority Liberals in power, associated with the government’s record.
Winnipeg
The next byelection after LaSalle–Émard–Verdun will take place in Winnipeg, in the riding of Elmwood–Transcona. The seat became empty after NDP MP Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to work for the newly elected provincial NDP government.
The Liberals are unlikely to lose sleep over that contest, having been a distant third in the last two elections with under 15 percent of the votes. Mr. Blaikie ran away with the victory both times, besting the Tories by over 21 points in 2021 and 8.1 points in 2019.
Tory momentum and dissatisfaction with the NDP-supported Liberals will weigh in the race. Adjacent ridings to Elmwood–Transcona are split between parties, with two being held by Tories, two by the Liberals, and one by the NDP.
Coast-to-Coast
The first byelection of 2025 will be held in the Greater Vancouver Area. Liberal MP John Aldag resigned from his seat in Cloverdale–Langley City in late May.
Mr. Aldag was first elected in 2015 and lost the seat to the Tories in 2019. He reclaimed it in 2021 by besting his Conservative opponent with 39.2 percent of the vote against 36.1 percent.
This byelection must be announced by Nov. 30 and may be held sometime in January 2025.
Progressive-Conservatives last held that riding in 1988, after which it changed hands between the Liberals and NDP. Former NDP leader Alexa McDonough held the Halifax seat from 1997 to 2008.
Conservatives have had a poor showing there in the last three elections, with their best result being 12.9 percent in 2021. Meanwhile, the NDP trailed the Liberals by 3 points in that contest.
No date has been set for the announcement of that byelection.
