Expert: China’s Leadership Shaken by Taiwan Election Results
Taiwan’s election results have caused a significant stir in Beijing, says Yuan Hongbing, a renowned Chinese dissident and philosopher living in exile in Australia, who asserts that the situation is a considerable blow to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping.
Xi’s Defeat
The CCP claims Taiwan as its own territory to be taken by force if necessary, and Xi has vowed to achieve the “reunification” of Taiwan, even though the CCP has never ruled the island.
For the past four years, the Chinese regime has increased its military aggression toward Taiwan by repeatedly breaching the previously recognized median line that served as an unofficial barrier between the two sides.
On Jan. 13, Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, and vice presidential candidate, Hsiao Bi-khim, won the general election and defeated the main opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT), regarded as pro-CCP and favors increased engagement with China.
Mr. Yuan believes Mr. Lai’s success is a major victory for the international forces of freedom and democracy but a significant defeat for the Xi administration.
“When people in Taiwan chose Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim, they chose Taiwan to go global, they rejected Xi Jinping’s so-called ‘one country, two systems,’ and denied the candidates that the CCP has promoted through various united front means,” Mr. Yuan told the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times in an interview on Jan. 14.
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Beijing’s plan for “reunifying” Taiwan with mainland China, setbacks in Taiwan’s presidential election, and internal instability within the CCP are the three major factors contributing to the escalating crisis in the Taiwan Strait, according to Mr. Yuan.
“The CCP has embedded the conquest of Taiwan as a fundamental national policy in its constitution and party charter. Conquering free Taiwan marks a pivotal step for the CCP in the global expansion of communist authoritarianism. This is the Party’s predetermined national policy,” he said.
“The second point is that, as Taiwan’s elections unequivocally rejected the presidential candidates endorsed by the CCP and chose the steadfast defenders of Taiwan’s sovereignty, Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Mei-chin, the CCP’s desire to conquer free Taiwan without military confrontation becomes unattainable. In this situation, the CCP will certainly opt for other methods and approaches to undermine the status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” he continued.
Mr. Yuan claims that Liu Yuan, the son of former chairman Liu Shaoqi, is leading a large group of princelings who are calling for Xi to step down.
In this scenario, Mr. Yuan believes that Xi is left with only one option to maintain his hold on power: to seize Taiwan by launching a war in the Taiwan Strait.
“While Xi Jinping may see this as a way out, in reality, it is a self-destructive path,” the expert noted.
Nevertheless, history shows that authoritarian rulers frequently make unwise decisions, leading to their downfall, Mr. Yuan said. “This is evident with figures like Hitler and the militarists in imperial Japan. Presently, Xi Jinping cannot evade the historical curse.”
‘Reunification’
The DPP won a third term, but the election results also changed Taiwan’s legislature structure, with none of the three major parties securing a majority. The number of DPP seats declined, the KMT saw a significant increase in seats, and the People First Party (PFP), a relatively new party founded in 2019, firmly cemented its position as the third-largest party in parliament for two consecutive terms, playing a crucial role as a key minority.
Mr. Lai’s administration faces a small majority, large opposition, and potential constraints from the other two parties.
Mr. Yuan attributed the decline in DPP seats in the legislature to the CCP’s extensive cognitive warfare and the incumbent Tsai Ing-wen government’s “perceived arrogance in domestic affairs that harmed the sentiments of the youth and society in Taiwan.”
Those two factors are “creating significant challenges for Lai Ching-te’s administration,” he said.
Mr. Yuan anticipates that Beijing will manipulate the pro-Xi politicians and their legislative activities to erode the island’s determination to stand up against the CCP’s influence.
“The objective is to create chaos, diminish overall consensus in the society, generate confusion, and thereby create conditions for the CCP to initiate a war in the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
The CCP leader has recently reiterated his intention to take over Taiwan, stating in his 2024 New Year address that the two sides “will surely be reunified” and “all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
Mr. Yuan stressed that there is no fundamental political basis for “reunification” between the two sides. “Reunification must be a voluntary and free will of the people, aligning with the principles of modern rule of law,” he said.
Taiwan’s freedom and democracy are fundamentally incompatible with the CCP’s authoritarianism and totalitarianism, Mr. Yuan emphasized, and that the CCP’s “reunification” itself is a “political deception.”
“With the DPP in power, it explicitly declares its determination to steadfastly uphold Taiwan’s national sovereignty, independent of communist tyranny. Whether it is acknowledged or not, this is a fact,” he concluded.
Haizhong Ning and Luo Ya contributed to this report.
