Expert predicts Labor faces troubled times federally following NT election defeat

Despite the Northern Territory (NT) election outcome over the weekend dealing a blow to the Labor Party overall, it was suburban voters who likely sealed their fate.

Labor had governed the NT for two terms before a 10 percent swing towards the Country Liberal Party (CLP) led to a turnaround in fortunes.

The CLP is now poised to potentially secure 16 seats out of seven, while Labor’s count has dropped from 14 to possibly four or five.

Political expert and Griffith University academic Paul Williams pointed out that a large part of the substantial swing against Labor came from suburban voters frustrated with two key national issues: the cost of living and crime.

“That’s why you saw significant swings in the suburbs, far exceeding the average swings,” he told The Epoch Times.

Williams emphasized that the cost of living is the predominant and wide-reaching concern among voters, surpassing even crime as a top issue.

“It’s impacting everyone, including the upper middle class,” he said.

“Inflation is affecting self-funded retirees and everyone except the ultra-wealthy.”

Williams predicts that Queensland may see a similar trend in the upcoming October state election.

At the federal level, the Albanese government might be able to retain power, but it is likely to suffer significant losses as well.

“The cost of living will hurt Albo in May,” Williams stated, suggesting a potential minority government.

An interest rate cut in February could provide some relief for Labor, but it may not be sufficient to secure a majority government.

In response to the NT election results, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese mentioned that Labor would explore the “implications” but shifted the blame back to the Territory.

“Law and order issues, which are under the jurisdiction of the Territory, were a major focus of the election campaign,” he said.

“Another factor was the frequent change of chief ministers, which caused disruption as well.”

However, Williams believes that crime and the cost of living will impact all Australians.

Others Say NT’s Situation Quite Specific

Australian Institute for Progress Executive Director Graham Young remarked that law and order, along with the cost of living, influenced the election outcome.

“The election seemed to revolve around law and order, particularly the chaos in Alice Springs, partly attributed to the relaxation of liquor laws by the incumbents,” he noted.

“The cost of living, Territory finances with a net debt of $10.8 billion, equivalent to Queensland having a net debt of $261.7 billion, were also important factors.”

Yet Young pointed out that the NT result may not necessarily indicate trends in other elections across the country.

“Polling in the NT is minimal, which is expected given its small population. With electorates averaging 6,120 voters and only around a 50 percent turnout, obtaining a statistically representative sample from them is challenging,” he explained.

“The unexpected scale of the result, with pundits predicting a close election and a five to six percent swing, may or may not reflect a significant silent majority.”

Young extended his best wishes to incoming NT Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro, acknowledging the challenges she will face.

AI and Its Impact on Elections

Furthermore, Williams cautioned that artificial intelligence (AI) could gradually become a factor in elections.

“The next challenge will be the economic upheaval caused by artificial intelligence (AI), and it’s difficult to predict its extent,” he said.

With AI posing a real threat to jobs, politicians will need to adapt quickly, according to Williams.

“We’ll need to develop new industries to counter this. Unemployment has been a significant factor in election outcomes,” he stated.

Chief Minister Vows to Target Crime

Finocchiaro, a 39-year-old lifelong NT resident and lawyer, previously nominated for Young Australian of the Year for her work on women’s pay equality, recognizes the pivotal role of crime in the NT.

She intends to take a tough stance on crime while also focusing on steering young offenders towards a better path.

“This is why we’re lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 10, so that young individuals can be held accountable and receive suitable consequences based on their age, like participation in boot camps,” she explained.

“This crucial work needs to be done, and more diversion options for our courts are necessary.

“However, it’s not just about addressing young offenders after the fact; it’s about providing every opportunity for kids to succeed in life.”

She plans to prioritize ensuring children attend school, setting them on a better trajectory in life.

As a young mother of two, she also aims to increase the tax-free threshold for pay rises from $1.5 million to $2.5 million, benefiting over 1,000 businesses with significant savings.