Experts predict that China will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the relationship between India and the US in the next 5 years.

August 21, 2024 TruthUSA

Two experts, one from India and one from the United States, are engaging in a discussion regarding India’s foreign relations and its ambitious economic goals.

This article is part of a year-long series titled “India: The Next Five Years.” Throughout the series, conversations with subject experts, thought leaders, innovators, strategists, and diplomats will delve into India’s foreign relations and global aspirations for the years 2024 to 2029.

India, a significant ally of the U.S., recently conducted the largest election globally, involving over 900 million voters. This extensive process resulted in the re-election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marking his third consecutive win leading the Modi-led National Democratic Alliance. Meanwhile, Presidential elections are on the horizon in the United States.

The Epoch Times had discussions with two experts—one from the United States and one from India—regarding the outlook for U.S.–India relations over the next five years, focusing on its priorities, inspirations, and challenges.

Harsh V. Pant, based in New Delhi, serves as the Vice President for Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). Pant, the author of several publications including the recent “India–U.S. Relations in the Modi Era,” conveyed to The Epoch Times that over the past decade, the relationship between the two nations has progressed positively despite changing administrations.

“We have witnessed transitions in leadership, such as from Obama to Trump and Biden in the U.S., and from Manmohan Singh to Modi in India. Nonetheless, there has been consistent growth in the relationship founded on fundamental converging interests, likely to persist as the focal point of global politics shifts towards the Indo-Pacific,” Pant affirmed.

Aparna Pande, the Director of the India Initiative at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, and author of various books including “Making India Great, the Promise of a Reluctant Global Power,” anticipates three key factors influencing India–U.S. relations in the upcoming five years. These factors encompass China, India’s economic advancements and U.S. support, and the vital element of human capital.

The Key Factor: China

Both experts concur that China will play a pivotal role in shaping the India–U.S. strategic partnership.

“The India–U.S. strategic partnership is poised for growth due to the perceived threat from China. China serves as a major competitor for India while being a peer rival for the United States. The defense, economic, and global partnerships between them within multilateral forums are likely to persist,” Pande stated.

Pant, the editor of “Aligned but Autonomous: India–U.S. Relations in the Modi Era,” published by ORF and Global Policy Journal in April 2024, collaborated with Vivek Lall, an American scientist and current CEO of General Atomics Global Corporation, on a special collection of essays.

In the collection’s introduction, Pant and Lall emphasized that the U.S. and India possess a “strategic imperative” to collaborate in maintaining a favorable balance of power that promotes their core interests and values.

“This assumption holds particularly true in the Indo-Pacific era, where China’s ascendancy poses new challenges,” they articulated.

Addressing Indian concerns regarding U.S. dialogue with Pakistan—a strategic ally of China—Pande attributed these apprehensions to a “traditional Indian perspective.”

She clarified, “No country exists in complete isolation unless intentionally so, as seen with examples like Myanmar or North Korea. Even these exceptions, however, are not entirely isolated. Let’s maintain fairness—both presidential candidates currently seek discussions with the North Korean leader. Engagement in dialogue does not equate to partnership. Hence, asserting that U.S. talks with Pakistan signify a failure to India as a partner is inaccurate.”

Partnership in the Indo-Pacific

The U.S. State Department affirms its support for India’s emergence as a leading global power and a critical partner in fostering a peaceful, stable, prosperous Indo-Pacific region.

Pande affirmed that this support is unlikely to waver post-U.S. presidential elections. Regardless of the political outcome, China remains the primary concern. Consequently, the Indo-Pacific strategy and the Quad alliance—comprising diplomatic collaboration between India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia—are expected to persist under their current titles.

“The defense and other cooperative efforts should align with the Indo-Pacific strategy, encompassing the economic dimension. The trajectory will hinge on the election results and the subsequent advancements or regressions in economic dimensions,” Pande explained.

She noted that the Quad alliance and security partnership have strengthened and will continue to fortify owing to China’s activities in the region.

“This serves as a message to China and fosters collaboration in defense and strategic realms, without necessarily evolving into a security partnership,” she added.

Moreover, she highlighted that the Quad alliance distributes fiscal obligations across partner nations, with private sector contributions bolstering the funds.

The special edition edited by Pant and Lall also examines the burgeoning technology collaboration between India and the U.S. within the Indo-Pacific context, championing the initiative on “emerging technologies” as the core of their relationship.

“Technological advancements are observable in both bilateral and Quad spheres, particularly accentuated by India’s deteriorating relations with China and U.S. trade restrictions targeting China, prompting endeavors to diminish dependence on China,” the report noted.

Pant disclosed to The Epoch Times that both India and the U.S. pursue a stable Indo-Pacific and are concertedly coordinating their actions to realize this vision.