Experts predict that Japan’s upcoming Prime Minister is expected to prioritize a balanced international policy.

October 1, 2024 TruthUSA

Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister set to become Japan’s next prime minister, is expected to pursue a balanced international policy while strengthening regional alliances against China, experts say.

Experts also note that Ishiba, in his fifth and successful attempt to lead the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the country, reflects Japanese politicians’ desire for a middle-of-the-road leader.

Nine candidates competed in the recent LDP presidency election, concluding on Sept. 27.

Akio Yaita, a Japanese journalist and director of the Taipei branch of the Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun, told The Epoch Times that Ishiba’s win signals his moderate foreign policy approach resonating with voters.

Looking ahead to Japan’s House of Representatives election, Yaita believes Ishiba’s centrist stance could attract middle-ground voters in the Diet and facilitate the LDP in forming a ruling coalition.

Szu-shen Ho, director of the Center of Japan and East Asia Studies at Fu Jen Catholic University in Taiwan, also told The Epoch Times that Ishiba’s moderate approach offers the LDP a better way to broaden its support base among lawmakers.

According to Yaita, Ishiba’s calls for a stronger defense do not imply military expansionism.

Ishiba has long promoted the idea of an “Asian NATO” involving Australia and South Korea, in addition to strengthening ties with European nations like the UK and France to bolster Japan’s security and regional peace.

“Ukraine today is Asia tomorrow. Replacing Russia with China and Ukraine with Taiwan, the absence of a collective self-defense system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defense,” he wrote in a paper to the Washington-based think tank Hudson Institute, published on Sept. 18.

“Under these circumstances, the creation of an Asian version of NATO is essential to deter China by its Western allies.”

Daniel Kritenbrink, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, called the “Asian NATO” approach “too early” at a Sept. 17 event at the Stimson Center, another Washington-based think tank.

“What we are focused on is investing in the region’s existing formal architecture and continuing to build this network of formal and informal relationships. Then, we’ll see where that goes,” he said.

Nevertheless, Ishiba remains steadfast in his position.

Following his victory, Ishiba held a press conference on Sept. 27 to announce plans to establish a comprehensive system to defend Japan. He emphasized the urgency of addressing recent September incidents, including Russian military aircraft violating Japanese airspace and a Chinese survey ship entering Japan’s territorial waters.

To enhance Japan’s deterrence and response capabilities, he asserted the need for Japan to be able to react. He suggested an “organic integration” of the U.S.–Japan, U.S.–Korea, and U.S.–Philippines alliance frameworks.

Ho believes that the proposed “Asian NATO” will bolster the Indo-Pacific region’s ability to counter threats from China, North Korea, and Russia.

Ho also commended Ishiba’s longstanding views on security and constitutional reform, which aim to acknowledge formally Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) defense function in the Constitution as “pragmatic and rational” in today’s global landscape.

Japan’s SDF primarily focuses on defense, mirroring the country’s post-World War II constitution, safeguarding Japan’s sovereignty and promoting regional stability.

Ishiba advocates for Japan’s SDF to have the ability to exercise the right of collective self-defense—protecting Japan and allied countries if their survival is at risk.

Moreover, in a press conference on Sept. 27, he reaffirmed his plan to establish an SDF training base in the United States, which he believes would “significantly strengthen the alliance.”

Yaita compared Ishiba with the economic security minister, Takaichi, his rival in the run-off.

“Regarding defense matters, Ishiba is seen as more stable and predictable compared to Takaichi,” Yaita stated.

“In terms of U.S.–Japan relations and Japan’s relations with neighboring nations, Ishiba is more measured and less likely to make unexpected moves,” he added.

Ho also noted Ishiba’s relative stability concerning foreign policy and Japan’s security strategies.

“He is not expected to cause any surprises or issues for the Indo-Pacific region or the United States. His support for enhancing Japan’s defense capabilities should be viewed as a response to the changing security situation in the Indo-Pacific rather than expansionism,” Ho explained.

During his visit to Taiwan in August, Ishiba stressed the importance of deterrence without making specific commitments regarding Japan’s potential military involvement in Taiwan.

Compared to other candidates, Ishiba is considered a “dove” among a group of China policy hawks. Although Ishiba is cautious to avoid provoking China or South Korea, Yaita mentioned that his opponent, Takaichi, might lead to increased tensions with China due to her potential stronger alliance with Taiwan.

Yaita categorizes Ishiba not in the “pro-China” camp.

“In fact, Ishiba’s proposal for an ‘Asian NATO’ positions China as an adversary,” Yaita emphasized.

Xin Ning contributed to this report.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Source link