Experts suggest that CCP may use South China Sea tensions to assess the US response towards its allies.
There is simmering tension in the South China Sea following multiple confrontations between ships from China and the Philippines in recent months, a vital waterway for the global economy.
Experts suggest that the Chinese communist regime could be using the South China Sea as a testing ground to assess the U.S. response to its allies while extending military expansion in the region.
In a recent clash on June 17 near the disputed Spratly Islands, the Philippines reported injuries and damage to vessels after a clash with Chinese boats near Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.
The Chinese Communist Party’s defense ministry accused the Philippines of deliberately approaching its naval ships, leading to the collision. In response, the Philippines’ foreign ministry blamed China’s aggressive actions for the incident.
A 2016 international ruling rejected China’s claim to waters near Second Thomas Shoal, in favor of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Despite this ruling, China dismissed it and refused to participate in the arbitration process.
Experts note that China has historically exerted pressure on the Philippines, with former President Rodrigo Duterte pursuing a pro-China policy that strained relations with the United States. This dynamic changed when Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office in 2022.
Srikanth Kondapalli, an expert from Jawaharlal Nehru University in India, described China’s strategy as two-pronged, combining external military exercises with internal influence operations.
All-out Invasion?
Following the maritime conflict, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed America’s commitment to the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty during a phone call with the Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo.
During Marcos’s visit to the U.S. in May 2023, both sides reiterated their security alliance, with President Joe Biden reaffirming the United States’ ironclad defense commitment to the Philippines.
Experts caution that the United States would proceed cautiously in invoking the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, as it lacks a base like Subic Bay in the region for implementation.
They believe that the U.S. would intervene only in the case of an all-out invasion by China, a scenario deemed unlikely by experts.
Testing the Water
Experts suggest that China may be using its military actions in the South China Sea to assess the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait and gauge U.S. resolve to defend its allies. However, the situation in Taiwan differs significantly from that in the Philippines.
While Taiwan has shown willingness and capability to resist, the Philippines relies on support from allies such as the United States in such scenarios.
Experts believe that the United States has a greater stake in Taiwan than in the Philippines and that China is likely testing the waters in the South China Sea to gauge U.S. reactions.
Dorothy Li contributed to this report.
