Federal Panel Identifies Blurring of Truth, Powerful Billionaires, and Ecosystem Collapse as Top 10 ‘Plausible’ Threats to Canada
According to a federal panel tasked with imagining 35 “plausible” catastrophes, truth could become indistinguishable from lies within 2.5 years, cyberattacks could disable critical infrastructure within four years, billionaires could be running the world within 4.5 years, and vital natural resources could run short within eight years.
The threats were ranked by potential impact and timelines by federal policy advisory body Policy Horizons Canada. Among the top-10 ranking threats were ecosystem collapse, artificial intelligence gone rogue, a collapse of the health-care system, breakdown of democratic systems, overwhelmed emergency response, and widespread downward mobility.
The panel conducted interviews with experts, reviewed literature on various scenarios, engaged with policy makers, held workshops with forecasters, and analyzed societal changes to come up with 35 “plausible” disruptions to Canadian society. They gathered input from around 500 stakeholders, colleagues, and foresight experts to categorize the threats by likelihood, potential impact, time horizon, and interconnections between scenarios.
One of the most likely and imminent disruptions highlighted in the report could lead to a situation where people could no longer differentiate between truth and falsehood due to the prevalence of artificial intelligence and misinformation.
It was suggested that under this scenario, people might live in divergent realities shaped by personalized media and information ecosystems, leading to an environment of disinformation, conflicting narratives, and challenges in scientific research and public decision-making.
The report also highlighted the potential outbreak of World War III as the most damaging catastrophe, driven by escalating tensions between global powers.
Furthermore, the report warned of a scenario where billionaires could potentially control the world by 2029, gaining warfare capabilities, control over resources, and influencing international relations.
Another alarming scenario mentioned was the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse, with potential implications for societal fragility and increased vulnerability to authoritarian groups.
The panel also identified several “underanticipated disruptions,” including civil war in the U.S., antibiotic resistance, widespread monetization of biodata, and uninsurable property.
