Goldman Sachs and Citigroup Lower China’s 2024 Growth Forecast to 4.7 Percent
Chinese American economist Davy J. Wong stated that ‘China’s real economic situation could be much worse than what the official data show.’
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have revised their growth forecasts for China to 4.7 percent this year after the release of sluggish economic data by the Chinese communist regime in August.
The annual 5 percent growth rate set by the Chinese Communist Party for this year is unlikely to be achieved.
Due to the lack of transparency and data falsification by the CCP, Western institutions find it challenging to determine the true state of the Chinese economy, which may be worse than what the regime discloses.
Data released by the CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics on Sept. 14 showed a slowing industrial output and retail sales growth, along with the lowest fixed asset investment growth this year.
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup had earlier forecasted growth rates of 4.9 percent and 4.8 percent respectively for China’s full-year economic growth.
Japanese firm Mizuho Securities also reduced its growth forecast for China to 4.7 percent, while Goldman Sachs and Citigroup downgraded their forecasts for 2025 GDP growth to 4.3 percent and 4.2 percent respectively.
According to Chinese American economist Davy J. Wong, the downgrade by international rating agencies reflects the inaccuracy and lack of clarity in the CCP’s official data, prompting a risk-hedging revision by investment banks.
China’s Real Economic Situation Could Be Much Worse
Recent data restrictions by the Chinese regime have further obscured China’s economic information, making it harder to assess the actual economic condition.
Wong highlighted the misunderstanding of the Communist regime’s economic structure by Western institutions, emphasizing the deteriorating private sector and high underemployment rates in China.
Professor Sun Kuo-hsiang suggested that the downgrading of economic growth forecasts points to significant challenges faced by the Chinese economy, especially considering the manipulation of statistical data by the CCP.
Professor W. Paul Chiou emphasized the decline in China’s investment and consumer confidence, indicating a serious state of the economy and the need to focus on indicators related to people’s welfare rather than just economic growth rates.
Contributions to this report were made by Luo Ya and Reuters.
