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Government Accountability Office Reports Federal Government Concealing Analysis of Economic Impact of Carbon Tax


The federal budget watchdog reveals that Ottawa is not sharing its analysis of the economic impacts of the carbon tax.

“We’ve seen that, staff in my office, but we’ve been told explicitly not to disclose it and reference it,” Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) Yves Giroux told the House of Commons finance committee on June 3.

Mr. Giroux mentioned that the analysis essentially confirms the report published by his office, which shows that when factoring in the economic impacts of the carbon tax, eight out of 10 households are financially worse off.

“So that’s why I’m comfortable with what we have already published, with the understanding that it provides the impact of the carbon tax and the OBPS (output-based pricing system),” he stated.

The PBO recently faced criticism from the federal government for an error in its analysis of the fuel charge, or carbon tax, as it inadvertently included data from the OBPS, the industrial pricing system for large emitters, skewing the results and exaggerating the impacts on households.

Liberal MP Ryan Turnbull wrote a letter to the PBO on May 28 requesting a new analysis to be produced, following the acknowledgment of the error in mid-April.

Mr. Giroux told The Epoch Times last week that he believes a new analysis with the correct data will not alter his overall conclusion, given the greater impact of the carbon tax compared to the OBPS on the economy.

During the committee meeting, Mr. Turnbull challenged Mr. Giroux on this assumption, questioning how he could prejudge the findings of a future report without conducting the analysis.

Mr. Giroux defended his stance, citing his office’s best judgment and consultations with stakeholders, such as Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), highlighting that the government has its own unpublished analysis on the economic impacts of carbon pricing.

Bloc Québécois MP Gabriel Ste-Marie asked Mr. Turnbull to make this information public.

‘Confidential’

Chris Matier, director general of economic and fiscal analysis with the PBO, disclosed to the committee that his office had requested information from ECCC in late March or early April, receiving estimates on real GDP, labor income, and capital income, marked as confidential and non-disclosable.

The politicization of the carbon tax issue has intensified with the Conservatives opposing it adamantly and pushing against it vigorously.

MPs are set to vote on another Tory motion related to the carbon tax, advocating for a “summer tax break” until Labour Day and pausing the GST on gasoline and diesel.

The government has mostly maintained its position on the carbon tax, except for a pause on heating oil last fall under pressure from Liberal MPs in Atlantic Canada.

Mr. Turnbull highlighted the politicization of the issue in the committee, cautioning that the conclusions drawn from the error in the report may be inaccurate.

Mr. Giroux countered by stating that the government also relies on PBO reports for information.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau defended the carbon tax citing PBO figures in the House of Commons, asserting that the report found eight out of 10 Canadian families benefit from the Canada Carbon Rebate, while the PBO’s analysis indicates that eight out of 10 households are negatively affected when considering the economic impacts of the tax.

As the PBO conducts a new analysis, the ratio of households affected may change, with the final report expected in the fall.



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